Summary
- Morgan Stanley said its year-end forecast range for the Kospi is 6,500 to 9,500, and that 10,000 is possible in a bull-case scenario.
- The report said the Kospi is expected to extend its gains on structural growth and sustained reforms.
- Morgan Stanley said multiyear industry cycles, including in information technology, would continue, and that it added SK Square and NC to its focus list.
Forecast Trend Report by Period
Morgan Stanley Sees Kospi at 9,500 by Year-End
Morgan Stanley said the Kospi could climb to 9,500 this year and reach 10,000 in a bull-case scenario.
In a report dated May 12, the global investment bank said it expects the Kospi to continue rising on structural growth and sustained reforms. It set a year-end target range of 6,500 to 9,500.
Morgan Stanley projected the index at 8,500 in the first half. In a bull-case scenario, it said the Kospi could reach 10,000 by year-end. Even in a bear-case scenario, it sees the floor at 6,000.
The report said external uncertainty tied to the Middle East would persist in the second half. Still, Morgan Stanley expects South Korean stocks to show strong resilience in the wake of the conflict. If the war involving Iran continues beyond June, the spillover effects could be substantial, though preemptive policy measures would provide a buffer.
Morgan Stanley said South Korea's capital market has been viewed as economically sensitive and heavily weighted toward physical assets such as industrials and materials, a factor that has weighed on the Kospi. Even so, it said multiyear industry cycles are set to continue in information technology, as well as energy security, defense, reconstruction, autos and robotics.
Morgan Stanley also added SK Square and NC to its focus list.
Lee Seul-gi, Hankyung.com reporter seulkee@hankyung.com
Korea Economic Daily
hankyung@bloomingbit.ioThe Korea Economic Daily Global is a digital media where latest news on Korean companies, industries, and financial markets.
