Trump Advisers Fear China May Be More Likely to Invade Taiwan Within Five Years

Concern that China could invade Taiwan has surfaced among advisers around President Donald Trump after the US-China summit, Axios reported.

The online news outlet said on May 17 that some people close to Trump believe the likelihood of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan within the next five years has increased.

An unnamed Trump adviser told Axios that Chinese President Xi Jinping is trying to position China as a country "equal to the United States." The adviser said Xi wants to elevate China to a position where it can say, "We are not a rising power. We are your equal, and Taiwan is ours."

The adviser said Trump's latest trip to China was "a signal that the chances of Taiwan being on the table within the next five years have grown significantly." The person added that the US has no economic way to prepare for such a scenario and that semiconductor supply chains remain far from self-sufficient.

The concern reflects how difficult it would be for the US to absorb a supply shock in a Taiwan contingency, given its heavy reliance on Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. for chips. For chief executives and the broader economy, the adviser said, no issue is more urgent than the semiconductor supply chain.

The concern appears to have been fueled by Taiwan's emergence as a key agenda item at last week's US-China summit. According to China's official readout, Xi said at the meeting held at Beijing's Great Hall of the People on May 14 that "the Taiwan issue is the most important issue in China-US relations." He said handling it properly would help preserve overall stability in bilateral ties, while mishandling it could lead the two countries into conflict and push the relationship into dangerous territory.

Trump's remarks afterward added to the controversy. In a Fox News interview that aired on May 15, he called arms sales to Taiwan "a good bargaining chip" and said the US could choose to sell weapons or not. He also said China is a very powerful country and Taiwan is a very small island, adding that Taiwan is about 95 kilometers from mainland China while the US is about 15,000 kilometers away.

Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio have said US policy on Taiwan has not changed. Still, diplomats have interpreted Trump's reference to Taiwan arms sales as leverage in negotiations with China as a departure from the approach of previous US administrations. As a result, whether Trump approves new arms sales to Taiwan and whether already approved deliveries proceed as scheduled are likely to be key measures of Washington's commitment to Taiwan's defense.

Lee Song-ryeol, Hankyung.com reporter yisr0203@hankyung.com