Bitcoin Volatility Rises After $4 Billion IBIT Options Expiry as Macro Risks Mount

Bitcoin has slipped below the $80,000 support level, with QCP Capital attributing the increase in market volatility to the expiry of BlackRock's spot Bitcoin ETF IBIT options last week and to mounting macroeconomic uncertainty.

Odaily reported on May 18 that QCP Capital said Bitcoin had traded near $80,000 for most of the period before recently falling below $78,000. Long gamma linked mainly to IBIT options had helped suppress volatility, but that support weakened after about $4 billion of options expired last Friday.

QCP also said the macro backdrop was deteriorating. The yield on the US 10-year Treasury rose to 4.62%, while the 30-year yield climbed to 5.14%, close to the high for this cycle. The dollar-yen exchange rate also advanced to the 158-159 range, reviving the prospect of Japanese government intervention in the foreign-exchange market and concerns about an unwind of the yen carry trade.

Markets are hoping for progress in trade negotiations, but no concrete details emerged from the recent meeting between President Donald Trump and China's leadership, according to QCP.

Rising oil prices and persistently high inflation have also led markets to begin pricing in the possibility that the Federal Reserve could deliver another 25-basis-point rate increase before January next year, with implied odds currently around 50% to 60%.

QCP said the crypto market would probably remain range-bound for now until there is clearer progress on tariff policy or US-Iran tensions.