Bubblemaps Says 9 Polymarket Accounts Made 98% Accurate Iran Bets, Raising Insider Trading Suspicions
Summary
- Bubblemaps said it identified nine Polymarket accounts that accurately predicted US military action against Iran and generated about $2.4 million in profit.
- The firm said the accounts posted a win rate of about 98%%, appeared to have acted in coordination, and may have used nonpublic information, with some believed to be linked to the US.
- The market is watching how the insider trading allegations could affect prediction market credibility and debates over tighter regulation.
Forecast Trend Report by Period
Bubblemaps, an on-chain analytics firm, said it identified Polymarket accounts that accurately predicted US military action against Iran, raising suspicions of insider trading on the prediction market.
Decrypt reported on May 18 that Bubblemaps tracked nine Polymarket accounts that bet on the timing of a US strike on Iran, a ceasefire announcement and the possible removal of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei from power.
The accounts generated about $2.4 million in profit and posted a win rate of about 98%, the report said.
Bubblemaps said the accounts appeared to have acted in a coordinated manner.
It added that the traders may have used nonpublic information and that some of the accounts were believed to be linked to the US.
Polymarket did not respond to a request for comment, according to Decrypt.
Prediction market platforms have recently drawn large inflows tied to bets on political, war and macroeconomic events, fueling debate over information asymmetry and regulatory risks.
The market is now watching how the latest allegations could affect confidence in prediction markets and discussions about tighter regulation.
JH Kim
reporter1@bloomingbit.ioHi, I'm a Bloomingbit reporter, bringing you the latest cryptocurrency news.
