Wintermute Says Bitcoin Could Drop Quickly Into $70,000s if $75,000 Support Breaks

Wintermute said Bitcoin could fall quickly into the $70,000 range if support at $75,000 breaks.

BlockBeats reported on May 19 that the crypto market maker said in a recent market report that digital-asset markets have come under pressure this week as U.S. inflation reaccelerates and interest-rate expectations shift.

Bitcoin failed to break above its 200-day moving average during what Wintermute described as the first major macroeconomic shock of the recent period. The firm said that suggests the previous rally was driven more by short covering than by fresh capital inflows.

The market backdrop is also shifting quickly. U.S. consumer-price inflation has accelerated again, and core inflation exceeded forecasts. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.58%. Wintermute also cited the start of a new Federal Reserve chair's term in three weeks, with the incoming chief viewed as hawkish, as another source of pressure.

Rate expectations have also changed sharply over a short period, the firm said. Just five trading days ago, markets were leaning toward rate cuts. Now, the possibility of an additional rate increase is being discussed.

Moves across asset classes also reflect growing risk aversion, according to the report. Brent crude has gained 8.6% this week, while Bitcoin and Ether have fallen 5.7% and 10.2%, respectively.

"Capital is moving into assets that benefit from inflation, while digital assets are underperforming even equities during the selloff," Wintermute said, adding that investors should watch for continued relative weakness.

Still, the firm said longer-term structural positives remain in place. Bitcoin balances on exchanges are holding near long-term lows, while accumulation by long-term holders and progress on the CLARITY Act, a U.S. crypto market-structure bill, were cited as key supportive factors.

Wintermute identified the $76,000 to $78,000 range as the key near-term zone for Bitcoin. "If that range holds even after Nvidia's earnings release, market confidence could partially recover," it said. "But if $75,000 breaks and funding rates keep falling alongside ETF outflows, Bitcoin could slide quickly into the $70,000 range."