Bitcoin May Bottom Around October if Halving Cycle Holds

Bitcoin may form a bottom around October this year if it follows the pattern of past halving cycles.

CoinDesk reported on May 19 that the number of blocks remaining until Bitcoin’s next halving has fallen below 100,000. Historically, bear markets have tended to end 12 to 18 months before a halving. That pattern points to a potential bottom around October this year.

A Bitcoin halving is a supply-reduction event that occurs roughly every 210,000 blocks. The current mining reward is 3.125 BTC per block, and it is set to fall to 1.5625 BTC after the next halving, scheduled for April 2028.

Based on that framework, CoinDesk said Bitcoin’s bear market could end in the second half of this year. Veteran trader Peter Brandt has recently flagged a similar period as a possible bottoming window.

Near-term downside risks remain, however. Rising oil prices, higher US Treasury yields and outflows from spot exchange-traded funds are weighing on the market.

Jean-David Péquignot, chief commercial officer at derivatives exchange Deribit, identified the $76,000 to $77,000 range as a key support zone for Bitcoin.

If that range breaks, the next target could be $70,000 to $72,000. After that, the market could open the way to the $60,000 range, he said.

CoinDesk also highlighted the sharp rise in Japan’s 10-year government bond yield as another source of volatility for global risk assets. Market participants say that if Japanese investors accelerate the repatriation of overseas assets, the yen could strengthen and swings in global liquidity could intensify.