Polymarket Launches Prediction Markets on OpenAI, Anthropic Valuations

Polymarket, the blockchain-based betting platform, has launched a new prediction-market product tied to private companies including OpenAI and Anthropic.

CNBC reported on May 19 that Polymarket would offer contracts linked to private-company valuations and the timing of initial public offerings. Users, for example, can bet on whether OpenAI will go public at a valuation above $1 trillion before 2027. Payouts will depend on whether specific private-market events occur, with contracts set to be settled using Nasdaq Private Market data.

CNBC said the launch gives individuals a way to gain indirect exposure to private-company investing. Nasdaq says there are 1,600 unicorns valued at more than $1 billion. But investment in those companies has largely been limited to accredited investors and institutions, leaving retail investors shut out. “We are entering one of the last frontiers of financial markets that individual investors could not access,” Polymarket Chief Executive Officer Shayne Coplan said.

The industry sees the contracts as a potential new market for institutional investors because they offer a way to gauge how market participants assess the growth prospects of private companies.

Myung-hyun Han, Hankyung.com reporter, wise@hankyung.com