Summary
- The US has delivered a “final proposal” to Iran and is considering a resumption of airstrikes if Tehran refuses to accept it.
- Trump and military and intelligence agencies have canceled holiday plans and moved to a standby posture for a possible military response in the Middle East.
- With negotiations deadlocked, last-minute mediation efforts focused on ending the war are continuing, but the likelihood of military action will rise if there is no progress within the next 24 hours.
Forecast Trend Report by Period


‘Final proposal’ sent to Iran
Holiday plans scrapped after security meeting
Military and intelligence agencies on standby
Pakistan and Qatar step up mediation
Diplomacy remains deadlocked

The US is keeping open the option of renewed military action against Iran as it watches last-ditch negotiations unfold. President Donald Trump canceled personal holiday plans, including a trip for his eldest son’s wedding festivities, after meeting with senior national security officials and decided to remain at the White House. Officials across the administration, military and intelligence agencies have also cleared their weekend schedules, adding to expectations in Washington that talks with Iran have reached a critical juncture.
Personal plans scrapped after security meeting
Trump is considering resuming airstrikes if Iran rejects what the US has described as a “final proposal,” Axios and CBS News reported on May 22. The US delivered the proposal on May 20 and warned that military attacks could resume if Tehran does not accept it, the reports said.
Trump met that morning with senior national security officials including Vice President JD Vance, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, CIA Director John Ratcliffe and White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles. They discussed the state of negotiations with Iran and possible responses if the talks collapse.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio was traveling in Europe, while Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Dan Caine did not attend because he was scheduled to appear at a US Naval Academy graduation ceremony.
Axios, citing sources, reported that Trump has grown increasingly frustrated with the talks in recent days. He had still favored a diplomatic solution when he spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on May 19, but later shifted toward restarting airstrikes.
One person close to the matter said Trump had also mentioned the possibility of a final large-scale military operation aimed at ending the war. Even so, there has been no clear sign that he has made a final decision to resume strikes.
Trump said on May 22 that Iran “badly wants a deal” and indicated he would keep watching the situation.
Military and intelligence agencies on standby
The US enters a three-day holiday weekend beginning May 23 ahead of Memorial Day on May 25, but tensions are rising in and around the government. Trump had planned to head to his golf club in New Jersey after delivering a speech in New York that evening. Instead, he decided to return to the White House.
In a Truth Social post, Trump said he would be unable to attend wedding events this weekend in the Bahamas for Donald Trump Jr. and Bettina Anderson because of “what is going on with the Government, and my love for the United States of America.” He added that he felt it was important to remain at the White House in Washington at this time.
Military and intelligence officials have also canceled personal holiday plans. As troop rotations continue in the Middle East, they have begun preparing for possible Iranian retaliation and updating call-up rosters for overseas bases.
The US and Iran entered a temporary ceasefire on April 8. Both sides have refrained from attacking each other to buy time for indirect talks aimed at reaching an agreement.
White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly told CBS News that Trump’s position is that Iran cannot be allowed to possess nuclear weapons or retain stockpiles of enriched uranium. “The president always keeps all options on the table, and it is the Pentagon’s job to be prepared to execute any decision a commander in chief may make,” she said.
Last-minute mediation fails to break deadlock
Efforts to prevent a renewed war are continuing. Pakistan Army Chief Asim Munir arrived in Tehran on May 22, and a Qatari delegation joined the mediation effort.
Munir is set to meet on May 23 with Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander Ahmad Vahidi, who is regarded as a key figure in Iran’s decision-making process.
The mood around the negotiations remains bleak. A US official briefed on the diplomatic talks described the negotiations as “painful.” Drafts are still being exchanged without meaningful progress.
Iran is also holding to its position. The foreign ministry said on May 22 that talks are underway but an agreement is not imminent. Tasnim, the semi-official news agency affiliated with the IRGC, also cited a person close to the negotiating team as saying discussions over disputed issues are still continuing and no final outcome has been reached.
That person said the current negotiations are focused solely on ending the war and that no other issues will be discussed until that question is resolved.
Axios, citing sources involved in the Iran talks, reported that the possibility of a breakthrough within the next 24 hours remains. But absent an unexpected development, Trump appears increasingly likely to move toward military action.
Hong Min-seong, Hankyung.com reporter mshong@hankyung.com

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