Trump Says Chances of Iran Deal or Military Action Are ‘50-50,’ Sees Decision by Sunday

President Donald Trump said the chances of reaching a deal with Iran or taking military action are “50-50.” Markets are closely watching the direction of U.S.-Iran negotiations.

Walter Bloomberg reported on May 23 that Trump, referring to Iran’s latest proposal, said the US could either reach “a good agreement” or move toward stronger military action. He put the odds at “50-50.”

Trump said he was scheduled to meet with aides and envoys later in the day and could make a decision as soon as Sunday. The US and Iran have recently continued talks that include extending a ceasefire and easing sanctions.

According to the report, the proposal under discussion includes a plan to end hostilities through 30 days of additional negotiations. The US is seeking limits on uranium enrichment and steps to address Iran’s stockpile of nuclear material.

Iran, however, has maintained that detailed discussions of the nuclear issue are not part of the initial negotiating framework. Iranian officials have previously said uranium enrichment and the Strait of Hormuz remain key sticking points.

Markets are assessing whether the outcome of the U.S.-Iran talks could drive volatility across global financial markets, including international oil prices and dollar moves. Still, a final agreement remains uncertain as differences persist over the nuclear program and sanctions relief.