Summary
- Iran's state media said reports of a 14-point memorandum with the US were "fabricated and baseless."
- Weaker expectations for progress in US-Iran talks led to a short-term decline in prediction market betting odds for a permanent peace agreement.
- Markets see uncertainty over the accuracy of the negotiation reports as a factor that could affect short-term volatility in global oil prices, risk assets and the crypto market.
Iran's state media denied a foreign media report that Tehran and Washington had agreed to a 14-point memorandum, undercutting expectations for progress in US-Iran talks. Prediction markets also showed lower odds of a permanent peace deal.
BlockBeats, a crypto-focused media outlet, reported on May 26 that Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting dismissed reports by some foreign outlets about a 14-point memorandum between Iran and the US as "entirely fabricated and baseless."
Some foreign media outlets had earlier reported that Iran and the US had prepared a final draft of the memorandum. The reported terms included keeping the Strait of Hormuz open, starting negotiations on nuclear issues and releasing Iran's frozen funds. Iran's state media rejected all of those claims as false.
The denial weakens hopes for easing tensions in the Middle East. In recent weeks, the prospect of progress in US-Iran talks has influenced sentiment toward risk assets and moves in global oil prices.
Odds in prediction markets also fell. Polyvits, which monitors Polymarket data, showed short-term declines across several maturities in bets on whether the US and Iran will reach a permanent peace agreement. The odds of a deal by May 31 stood at 26%, while the probability of an agreement by June 30 was 56%.
Markets are watching whether the reports on the negotiations prove accurate, as the issue could drive near-term volatility in global oil, risk assets and cryptocurrencies. Reports about opening the Strait of Hormuz and releasing frozen funds touch both energy supply and geopolitical tensions, meaning even unconfirmed headlines could spark short-term swings in crypto markets.
Minseung Kang
minriver@bloomingbit.ioBlockchain journalist | Writer of Trade Now & Altcoin Now, must-read content for investors.
