Kospi Rally Faces Key Test From US Data, AI Events This Week

NH Investment & Securities Sees Kospi in a 7,500-8,600 Range This Week

Brokerages expect the Kospi to extend its gains this week, from June 1 to June 5, supported by momentum in artificial intelligence and hopes that the US-Iran conflict will come to an end.

NH Investment & Securities said on May 31 that the Kospi is projected to move in a 7,500-8,600 range this week.

Lee Sang-jun, an analyst at the firm, said fund flows have concentrated further in semiconductor shares since the listing of single-stock leveraged ETFs tied to Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. The recent sharp rally and the market's heavy tilt toward chipmakers have made Korean stocks more volatile than peers, he said, though earnings momentum centered on semiconductors remains strong.

Investors are also focused on US economic data.

The Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index is due on June 1, and the May employment report is scheduled for release from June 2 to June 5. The ISM index is a leading indicator of US manufacturing activity and offers a gauge of whether the economy is expanding or slowing. The jobs report is a key measure of labor-market conditions and the Federal Reserve's policy path. Both releases could shift expectations for interest-rate cuts and ripple through Korean equities.

Kim Yoo-mi, an analyst at Kiwoom Securities, said a slowdown in the US labor market would raise the odds that the Fed keeps rates unchanged rather than tightens further.

Markets are paying particular attention to semiconductor catalysts from major AI events this week, including GTC Taipei, Computex and Microsoft Build.

Nvidia Chief Executive Officer Jensen Huang is scheduled to unveil the next-generation AI platform Rubin and a new chip roadmap in Taipei on June 1. A key component of the Rubin series is next-generation high-bandwidth memory, or HBM4, which both Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are seeking to supply. Any comments on that at the event could bolster sentiment toward Korean chip stocks.

Lee said SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics will also take part in GTC Taipei alongside Huang's keynote, with cooperation in HBM likely to be highlighted. That could also lift expectations for broader collaboration with Korean companies in areas including physical AI.

Some brokerages also see room for sector rotation into stocks that have lagged during the semiconductor-led run-up.

Lee Kyung-min, an analyst at Daishin Securities, said Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix accounted for 65% of the Kospi's rebound of more than 1,000 points since the May 20 low. With both shares having entered short-term overheated territory, they are likely to go through a period of consolidation for now, he said.

Lee Jae-won, an analyst at Yuanta Securities, said semiconductor stocks were lifted this month by price-to-earnings multiple expansion. Next month, rotation may spread to non-IT shares showing earnings improvement, he said, pointing to batteries, shipbuilding, defense and securities firms.

Daishin Securities named materials, industrials and exporters as promising sectors. Improving exports and strength in US manufacturing could support rebounds in energy, chemicals, batteries, defense and power equipment, Lee Kyung-min said. If bond yields remain stable, pharmaceuticals and biotech may also offer opportunities.

The stock market will be closed for one day on June 3, a temporary public holiday for local elections.

Kim Yeon-ji, Hankyung.com reporter kongzi@hankyung.com