Summary
- BIT said Bitcoin has entered a seasonally weak June stretch after falling 16%% year to date.
- BIT cited Bitcoin’s average June return of 0.7%% and its tendency to trade sideways in summer, while saying this year’s seasonal pattern could unfold in reverse.
- BIT pointed to the US launch of perpetual futures and a June 8 schedule tied to Nasdaq and CME crypto indexes as short-term catalysts, saying Bitcoin could be nearing a short-term bottom if fresh demand emerges.
Forecast Trend Report by Period
Bitcoin has entered June, a month when returns have historically weakened, according to an analysis by BIT. Some market analysts, however, say the token could still carve out a short-term bottom if key catalysts align despite seasonal pressure.
BIT, formerly Matrixport, published data on X on June 1 showing Bitcoin’s monthly seasonality over the past 10 years. The data showed Bitcoin’s average return in June was 0.7%, trailing stronger months including February at 12.3%, April at 11.3%, May at 10.3% and October at 17.9%.
The firm said Bitcoin is down 16% since the start of the year and is now entering a historically more difficult seasonal stretch. June has posted an average return of just 0.7% over the past decade, and Bitcoin has often traded sideways during the summer.
BIT also raised the possibility that this year could deviate from the usual seasonal pattern. May, which has typically been a strong month, did not produce a clear upswing this year, suggesting the pattern could reverse.
Markets are also watching near-term catalysts. BIT highlighted the launch of perpetual futures in the US and a June 8 schedule related to crypto indexes from Nasdaq and CME. While seasonality remains a headwind, the firm said fresh demand could bring Bitcoin closer to a short-term bottom from a tactical perspective.
Minseung Kang
minriver@bloomingbit.ioBlockchain journalist | Writer of Trade Now & Altcoin Now, must-read content for investors.
