Summary
- Bitcoin could test a liquidity zone near $72,000 as it faces Middle East risk and pressure from crowded long positions.
- The market pointed to $74,200 resistance, $72,700 support, a $72,000 buy wall, an $80,000 sell wall, and a $73,000 weekly close as key near-term levels.
- On-chain and derivatives indicators showed that long-term holder, or LTH, metrics have yet to enter a distribution phase, while positive funding rates and a long-position bias raised the possibility of a short-term pullback.
Forecast Trend Report by Period
Bitcoin entered June's first trading stretch facing pressure from Middle East tensions and crowded long positioning. Traders are watching a liquidity zone near $72,000, while upcoming US jobs data may shape the token's near-term direction.
Cointelegraph reported on June 1 that Bitcoin fell below $73,000 after the monthly close as military tensions between the US and Iran returned to the forefront. With hopes for an Iran ceasefire fading, the cryptocurrency started June at a new short-term low, the outlet reported.
Earlier on June 1, President Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social that Iran "does want to make a deal," and that it would be "a good deal for the US and those with us." He also blamed domestic political opposition for delaying negotiations, adding: "Sit back and watch comfortably. In the end, everything will work out."
Even so, Bitcoin showed no immediate signs of stabilizing after the remarks. Trader Daan Crypto Trades said the token has remained trapped in a tight range since last week, with $74,200 acting as resistance and $72,700 holding as support. Another trader, CW, said whale buy walls were clustered around $72,000, while sell walls were forming near $80,000.
From a technical standpoint, a weekly close at $73,000 has emerged as a near-term pivot. Analyst Rekt Capital said a close above that level would bring Bitcoin closer to confirming a double-bottom breakout. In the shorter term, traders are also tracking a Chicago Mercantile Exchange Bitcoin futures gap near $75,000 as an upside target.
US economic data due this week is also in focus. Cointelegraph said the Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing purchasing managers index and the nonfarm payrolls report will be closely watched. Investor Mark Chadwick said the ISM PMI has stayed above 50 for three straight months, noting that a reading above 50 signals expansion. He added that past expansionary periods have at times coincided with altcoin rallies.
On-chain indicators still support a cautious view. CryptoQuant contributor AbstractRyu said long-term holder, or LTH, metrics have yet to shift into a distribution phase. He added that last month's rebound may also have been a dead-cat bounce and that a bottom has not yet formed.
Derivatives markets are also flashing signs of excessive optimism. CryptoQuant contributor Nino said funding rates have moved into positive territory, signaling a growing bias toward long positions. If longs keep building while prices stagnate, the market could undergo a short-term drop to clear excess leverage, he said.
Santiment, a market sentiment analytics firm, said investor positioning is now the most skewed toward bullishness this year. With Middle East tensions, US employment data and a possible derivatives shakeout converging, Bitcoin may end up testing support around $72,000.
Minseung Kang
minriver@bloomingbit.ioBlockchain journalist | Writer of Trade Now & Altcoin Now, must-read content for investors.
