Polymarket Odds of Strait of Hormuz Normalizing by End of June Fall to 25%

The odds on Polymarket that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will return to normal by the end of June have fallen to 25%. President Donald Trump expressed optimism about temporary peace talks with Iran, but the market is placing greater weight on the risk that maritime traffic will take longer to recover.

Crypto media outlet Odaily reported on June 1 that the probability of a Polymarket bet on the Strait of Hormuz normalizing before June 30 had dropped to 25%. The odds are down 25 percentage points over the past week.

Cumulative trading volume in the contract is approaching $12 million. Under the contract terms, it resolves to “yes” if the seven-day average of daily vessel arrivals through the Strait of Hormuz, as tracked by the International Monetary Fund’s PortWatch, recovers to at least 60 by June 30, Odaily said.

The count includes container ships, bulk carriers, roll-on/roll-off vessels, general cargo ships and tankers. Vessels not reported by IMF PortWatch are excluded from the settlement criteria.

The decline in the odds reflects difficult negotiations over the possibility of renewed military conflict between the US and Iran, the handling of highly enriched uranium stockpiles and the method for reopening the waterway. Another source of uncertainty is the possibility that mines may need to be cleared as part of the reopening process.

Earlier in the day, Trump said temporary peace talks with Iran would produce “good results.” But negotiations still face another complication: Washington could come under political criticism if it unfreezes billions of dollars in Iranian funds at Tehran’s request.

Markets view a delay in restoring normal traffic through the Strait of Hormuz as a risk to energy supplies and sentiment toward risk assets. If tensions in the Middle East do not ease, oil prices, the path of interest rates and volatility in crypto markets could also face pressure.