Benjamin Cowen Says Bitcoin's June Weakness Fits Repeated US Midterm-Year Pattern

Cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen said Bitcoin's recent weakness resembles a seasonal pattern that has repeatedly appeared in US midterm election years. The latest BTC pullback has drawn mixed interpretations across the market.

Writing on X on June 1, Cowen said there are many explanations for Bitcoin's current decline, but the token has historically tended to remain weak through June in US midterm election years.

He also argued that the four-year cycle theory, while often criticized and mocked, has so far shown greater explanatory power than any other theory put forward.

Cowen said market participants have recently pointed to ETF flows, macroeconomic variables and geopolitical risks as drivers of Bitcoin's correction. But he added that similar pullbacks have also recurred at comparable points in past cycles.

Recent on-chain data show declines in whale holdings and slower trading volume, while spot Bitcoin ETFs have continued to post net outflows. At the same time, Bitcoin holdings by long-term holders, or LTHs, have reached a record high.

Market watchers say seasonality tied to midterm election years, the macroeconomic backdrop and shifts in institutional flows are combining to shape price action.