Benjamin Cowen Says Bitcoin’s June Weakness in US Midterm Years Is a Recurring Pattern

Cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen said Bitcoin’s current weakness resembles a seasonal pattern that has repeatedly appeared in US midterm election years. The market remains split on what is behind the latest BTC pullback.

Writing on X, formerly known as Twitter, on June 1, Cowen said there are many explanations for Bitcoin’s current decline, but the token has tended to stay weak through June in years when the US holds midterm elections.

The four-year cycle theory is often criticized and mocked, he wrote, but it has so far shown more explanatory power than any other theory that has been proposed.

Cowen said market participants have recently pointed to ETF flows, macroeconomic variables and geopolitical risks as reasons for Bitcoin’s correction. Similar pullbacks, however, have also recurred around the same period in past cycles.

Recent on-chain data show declines in whale holdings and slower trading volume, while spot Bitcoin ETFs have continued to post net outflows. At the same time, Bitcoin held by long-term holders, or LTHs, has reached a record high.

In the market, analysts say midterm-year seasonality, the macroeconomic backdrop and shifts in institutional flows are combining to shape price action.