Wintermute Says Crypto Is Being Left Out of Stock Rally as Fresh Money Dries Up

Cryptocurrencies are being left out of the rally in U.S. stocks, with the market failing to attract a clear new class of buyers even as equities keep advancing on optimism over artificial-intelligence earnings, crypto market maker Wintermute said in a report.

In its June 2 market report, Wintermute said Bitcoin had fallen toward $72,000 and Ether had dropped below $2,000. Major digital assets are down more than 4% on the month, while the S&P 500 has climbed for nine consecutive weeks.

Wintermute said the crypto market is showing its clearest decoupling of the year. Risk appetite has flowed into equities including the Nasdaq and Russell 2000, but cryptocurrencies, long viewed as risk assets, have not participated in the rally.

The report attributed the divergence to the presence of an earnings-driven narrative in stocks. Equities have a bullish case built on AI capital spending and corporate earnings, while crypto lacks a comparable story. As a result, stocks have been able to brush off some pressure from interest rates, while digital assets continue to bear macro headwinds the broader market is overlooking.

Fund flows have also remained negative. U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded an additional $1.4 billion of net outflows, according to Wintermute. Bitcoin and Ether ETFs together saw about $2 billion leave over the past 10 days. The report said the buying that drove Bitcoin from $70,000 to $80,000 in April has faded.

Selling by Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, also weighed on investor sentiment. Wintermute said continued ETF outflows, combined with Strategy's selling, intensified bearish sentiment across the crypto market.

"The issue is not just the macro environment," Wintermute said. If crypto cannot regain buying momentum even as pressure from interest rates and inflation eases, the core problem is the lack of fresh capital entering the market. The report said marginal money that moved into crypto in April has since shifted to stocks such as Nvidia, Dell and small caps.

Still, some long-term investors appear to be using the price decline to accumulate. Wintermute said long-term holders have been buying in tranches through over-the-counter desks. Rather than trying to predict the exact bottom, they view current levels as attractive on an 18-month horizon.

In the altcoin market, Hyperliquid's HYPE has been an exception. Wintermute said HYPE decoupled from the broader market after climbing above $70. Discussions around seed investment related to a Grayscale HYPE ETF and a mention of Hyperliquid by Intercontinental Exchange were cited as factors that helped fuel interest.

Wintermute said a reversal in ETF flows will be the key signal to watch. Spot ETF inflows were also the crucial sign when institutional money returned in April, the report said. The reason the crypto market remains sluggish now is the continued absence of sustained spot ETF inflows.

In the near term, Wintermute identified the area around $72,000 as a key level for Bitcoin. Below that, the low-$60,000 range could become the next support zone. Near-term variables include U.S. inflation data, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's launch of Nasdaq crypto index futures, and whether HYPE's strength spreads to other tokens.