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Bitcoin Falls Below $70,000 as Open Interest Surges, Raising Derivatives Risks

Source
Minseung Kang

Summary

  • Bitcoin's drop below $70,000 and the rise in futures open interest are highlighting the risk of further liquidations.
  • With spot demand weakening, continued net outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs and the Coinbase premium remaining in negative territory suggest spot buying is not supporting long positions in the derivatives market.
  • The market says failure to regain $70,000 could increase short-term volatility through derivatives liquidation pressure, with any decline in open interest and spot ETF flows seen as key variables.

Forecast Trend Report by Period

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Photo: Shutterstock
Photo: Shutterstock

Bitcoin fell below $70,000, adding to concerns that leverage in the derivatives market is becoming stretched. Spot demand has weakened even as futures open interest has climbed to elevated levels, increasing the risk of further liquidations.

CoinDesk reported on June 2 that Bitcoin was trading near $69,300. That left the cryptocurrency below $70,000, a level widely viewed as psychological support.

CoinGlass data show Bitcoin futures open interest has risen to about 773,000 BTC, one of the highest levels in the current cycle. CoinDesk said similar spikes in open interest have in the past appeared near short-term market tops.

Derivatives positioning suggests expectations for a rebound are still intact. Funding rates for perpetual futures have risen to about 10% on an annualized basis. A positive funding rate means traders holding long positions are paying those with short positions.

The concern is that prices are falling even as long leverage remains elevated. If Bitcoin extends its decline, long positions could be liquidated, adding to downward pressure on prices.

Spot-market demand remains weak. The Coinbase Premium Index has stayed deeply negative, around minus 100. The index measures the gap between Bitcoin prices on Coinbase and offshore exchanges. A deeper move into negative territory is generally interpreted as weaker demand from U.S. institutions and spot investors.

Net outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds reinforce that trend. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have recently continued to post outflows, suggesting spot buying is not strong enough to support long positions in the derivatives market.

CoinDesk said leveraged bullish bets are diverging from worsening spot demand. Even as artificial intelligence and software stocks continue to hit record highs, Bitcoin has also become less correlated with broader risk assets.

The market is watching whether Bitcoin can regain $70,000. If it does not, liquidation pressure in derivatives could fuel short-term volatility. A decline in open interest, a recovery in the Coinbase premium and the direction of spot ETF flows are seen as key signals for the market's near-term path.

Minseung Kang

Minseung Kang

minriver@bloomingbit.ioBlockchain journalist | Writer of Trade Now & Altcoin Now, must-read content for investors.
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