Goldman Sachs Lifts Kospi Target to 12,000 From 9,000 in Surprise Forecast

Target raised to 12,000 from 9,000 in less than a month

About 36% more upside seen from current levels

Goldman Sachs raised its 12-month target for the Kospi to 12,000 from 9,000, citing a semiconductor upcycle that is lasting longer than expected and improving corporate earnings forecasts. The bank had increased its target to 9,000 from 8,000 in early May and raised it sharply again less than a month later.

Goldman Sachs lifted its Kospi target to 12,000 in a report on the South Korean market on June 3, according to foreign media reports. That implies about 36% further upside from current levels.

The main reason for the higher target was a stronger earnings outlook. Goldman Sachs estimates Kospi earnings growth for 2026 has risen to 277% from 48% at the start of this year. It also said its forecast for this year's earnings growth for companies excluding Samsung Electronics Co. and SK Hynix Inc. climbed to 57% from 20% in January.

The bank also maintained a positive view on the semiconductor cycle. It said memory makers are gaining pricing power as computing demand grows faster than memory supply.

South Korean semiconductor stocks are trading at about five times forward price-to-earnings, Goldman Sachs wrote, indicating the market remains skeptical about how long this period of high profitability can last. Even so, the bank said it is convinced this cycle will last longer than in the past.

Goldman Sachs also said the Kospi has already more than doubled this year, and that Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix now account for more than 50% of the index's market capitalization, leaving it vulnerable to a short-term pullback. Still, the market remains attractive for long-term investors because earnings continue to support the rally, it said.

A short-term correction may come, Goldman Sachs said, but any pullback would be a buying opportunity as long as earnings remain supportive.

Hong Min-seong, Hankyung.com reporter mshong@hankyung.com