SpaceX IPO Seen as Key Wild Card for Kospi This Week

A listing for the history books is coming

All eyes on SpaceX

NH Investment & Securities sees the Kospi at 7,800-8,900 this week

South Korea’s Kospi is set to swing this week, June 8-12, depending on sentiment surrounding SpaceX’s planned Nasdaq debut. Brokerages say investors should watch for shifts in liquidity and profit-taking ahead of the blockbuster initial public offering. Still, expectations for the domestic stock market remain intact as momentum in artificial intelligence investment continues.

NH Investment & Securities said on June 7 that it sees the Kospi moving in a range of 7,800 to 8,900 this week. Lee Sang-jun, an analyst at the firm, said the index has recently been highly volatile amid concerns about a short-term surge, heavy concentration in semiconductor shares and a stalemate in U.S.-Iran talks. With SpaceX scheduled to list on Nasdaq on June 12, money could flow out of existing market leaders from a supply-and-demand perspective, he added.

SpaceX plans to raise $75 billion to $86 billion through the IPO. Up to 30% of the offering is set aside for retail investors. South Korean retail investors were excluded from the public subscription. In markets including Japan, however, individuals can reportedly participate directly, fueling competition for allocations.

Daishin Securities also flagged SpaceX as a key market catalyst to watch next week. Moon Nam-joong, an analyst at the firm, said the stock could see extreme volatility immediately after listing. Shares may surge for two to three days after the debut, but aggressive profit-taking is also likely.

Based on past experience, share prices have often fallen in the months following an IPO, he said. That means investor interest, which had run high before the listing, could cool quickly.

Yuanta Securities took a more constructive view, saying the semiconductor cycle, a pillar of the South Korean stock market, remains solid even in a volatile environment. Lee Jae-won, an analyst at the firm, said semiconductor exports jumped 169.4% last month from a year earlier, while memory chip prices continued to rise. Concerns that the AI investment boom may be fading remain overdone, he said.

Broadcom shares recently fell after the fabless chip designer reported earnings, he added. But the prevailing view is that the decline reflected overly high market expectations rather than weakening AI demand.

Lee also said Alphabet’s large-scale fundraising and increased capital spending signal that investment in AI infrastructure will continue for a prolonged period. If demand for AI services keeps rising, South Korean companies stand to benefit in areas where they are strong, including high-bandwidth memory, memory chips, AI servers and power infrastructure.

The key issue for the domestic stock market this week is not whether AI and semiconductor leaders will lose momentum, he said. It is whether money now concentrated in semiconductors will spread to other sectors. In the short term, war, oil prices and interest-rate issues could trigger a pullback. Even so, securities firms largely view that as a chance to buy quality AI and semiconductor names again.

Kang Kyung-ju, Hankyung.com reporter qurasoha@hankyung.com