Odds of CLARITY Act Passing Before August Fall

Market expectations for swift passage of the CLARITY Act, a US digital-asset regulation bill, are weakening. Traders are focusing less on whether the measure will pass at all and more on the risk that its approval will be delayed.

CryptoSlate reported on June 9 that prediction-market participants have been marking down the chances that the bill will pass before August.

On Polymarket, the probability of passage before August fell to 51% on June 8 from 62% on June 3.

On Kalshi, the odds dropped more sharply, to 22.1% on June 8 from 39.7% on June 3.

By contrast, Kalshi's odds that the bill will pass before 2027 slipped only slightly, to 51.5% on June 8 from 52.1% on June 3.

CryptoSlate said the market still sees a high likelihood that the CLARITY Act will eventually pass, even as expectations for near-term approval fade.

In the Senate, last-minute negotiations have continued over provisions protecting DeFi developers, rules governing interest payments on stablecoins and ethics clauses.

A delay in passage could prolong regulatory uncertainty for the US digital-asset industry beyond what the market had anticipated.