Summary
- The US CFTC plans to formally propose new rules for prediction markets that would allow sports-related contracts except those with clear potential for manipulation.
- The new rules would probably bar prediction bets that do not serve the public interest or are highly susceptible to manipulation, along with bets on player injuries, first-pitch gambling, and events involving war, terrorism and assassination.
- The CFTC said it will seek public comment as it lays out the factors for reviewing prediction market contracts case by case and works to establish sustainable and transparent standards.
Forecast Trend Report by Period
The US government is moving to establish new rules for prediction markets.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission plans to formally propose the rules on June 10, the Wall Street Journal reported. The centerpiece of the proposal is to allow sports-related contracts except those that present clear risks of manipulation.
The CFTC is seeking authority to block prediction bets that do not serve the public interest or are highly vulnerable to manipulation, the Journal reported. That would include cases in which a single individual could have an outsized impact on the outcome.
Some sports contracts would probably face restrictions. The Journal cited bets tied to player injuries and first-pitch gambling as leading examples. Bets related to war, terrorism and assassination would also probably be barred on public-interest grounds.
The proposal would not amount to a blanket ban on prediction market contracts. Instead, the CFTC plans to outline the factors it will use to review different types of prediction market contracts on a case-by-case basis.
The agency will also solicit public comment on the proposal. CFTC Chairman Michael Pham wrote in a post on X on June 10 that the agency would seek feedback on a systematic framework for evaluating prediction market contracts. The proposal aims to create sustainable and transparent standards while allowing legitimate markets to continue operating when they serve the public interest.
JOON HYOUNG LEE
gilson@bloomingbit.ioCrypto Journalist based in Seoul
