Bitcoin Nears Bear-Market Value Floor, but Demand Recovery Needed to Confirm Bottom

Bitcoin has entered a valuation zone that has historically coincided with structural bottoms in past bear markets, but an unprecedented slump in demand means it is still too early to call a true bottom.

CryptoQuant, an on-chain data analytics firm, made the assessment in its weekly crypto report on June 11. Bitcoin recently fell to about $59,000, leaving it trading just 9% above its realized price of $53,600, a metric representing the market’s average cost basis.

From a valuation standpoint alone, Bitcoin is likely approaching a structural bottom, CryptoQuant wrote. But demand has contracted at the sharpest pace since January 2022, while one-year spot demand growth has dropped to its weakest level since February 2024.

The firm also said outflows from U.S. institutional investors are accelerating. Buying in U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds has weakened at the fastest pace since the products launched in January. Over the past 30 days, ETF demand growth turned negative for the first time on record, signaling that U.S. institutional demand, a key market driver, has shifted to net selling at a historically unusual scale.

Investor capitulation selling has also yet to fully appear. Realized-loss volume in Bitcoin over the past 30 days totaled 187,000 coins. That compares with 400,000 in February and 1.2 million during the FTX collapse in November 2022.

CryptoQuant said total demand must stabilize, ETF flows must recover and realized losses must reach capitulation levels before the market can confirm a bottom. Until then, the current price range should be viewed only as a potential bottom rather than a confirmed cycle low.