SpaceX IPO Done, Middle East War Eases as Markets Shift to Fed Rates

The SpaceX initial public offering that drew markets’ attention last week has concluded, and the Middle East war that lasted more than 100 days is effectively moving toward an end. Investors are now rapidly turning their focus to the Federal Reserve’s rate decision.

According to industry officials on June 15, new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will hold his first press conference after chairing the Federal Open Market Committee for the first time on June 17. Markets are treating a hold in the benchmark rate as all but certain. The bigger question is what signal Warsh gives on the future path of monetary policy.

The US and Iran agreed to a memorandum of understanding to end the war and said the Strait of Hormuz is scheduled to reopen on June 19. As Middle East geopolitical risks eased, New York stock-index futures rose across the board on the evening of June 14. S&P 500 futures gained 0.8%, while Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 1.6%.

International oil prices, by contrast, tumbled. Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 4% to 5%. The drop eased concerns over high energy costs that had weighed on markets during the prolonged conflict, helping improve investor sentiment.

After a week in which investors focused on the SpaceX listing, this week’s main market drivers are the effect of postwar oil-price stabilization and the Fed’s rate message. Hopes for an end to the war are positive for equities. Still, the market mood could shift depending on how the Fed reads inflation pressures.

Warsh’s first press conference is drawing the most attention. He was nominated by President Donald Trump, who has repeatedly said the Fed should cut rates aggressively.

Investors are focused on more than whether rates stay unchanged. They are also watching whether the Fed drops the “accommodative monetary policy stance” it has maintained until recently. At the April FOMC meeting, three regional Federal Reserve bank presidents opposed keeping that language. The dissent suggested growing support inside the Fed for leaning more toward tightening than easing as inflation pressures persisted.

This time, however, the end of the Middle East war has introduced a new variable. With oil prices falling sharply and expectations rising that inflation pressures could ease somewhat, the key question is how Warsh balances those forces.

Investors are also watching how SpaceX shares perform after the listing. The stock closed its first trading day up 19% at $160.95. Market participants say the successful IPO also sent a positive signal for large artificial-intelligence companies preparing to go public, including Anthropic and OpenAI.

In New York equities, active share buybacks have reduced the number of publicly traded shares and helped fuel stock gains. But analysts say the market’s supply-demand structure could change if a wave of new share supply continues through large IPOs such as SpaceX.

Lee Song-ryeol, Hankyung.com reporter yisr0203@hankyung.com