Bitcoin Options Setup That Drove Drop Below $70,000 May Now Fuel Rebound

The options-market structure that accelerated Bitcoin’s break below $70,000 may now flip and add upward pressure to the token, according to 10x Research.

In a post on X on June 15, 10x Research wrote that options dealers were holding short-gamma positions around that level when Bitcoin fell below $70,000 two weeks ago. That forced them to sell spot into the decline, helping turn the correction into cascading liquidations that dragged Bitcoin down to $65,705.

Gamma measures how sensitively an option’s price responds to moves in the underlying asset. When dealers are short gamma, they typically manage risk by selling more as prices fall and buying more as prices rise. When short gamma is concentrated around a specific price, it can amplify moves in a single direction.

“That mechanism hasn’t disappeared. It has moved,” 10x Research wrote. The largest negative-gamma strike across the broader options market this week sits near the current spot price, it added. The firm estimated negative-gamma exposure in that area at $1.8 billion.

10x Research said that if Bitcoin extends its rebound from current levels, the same structure that worsened the selloff two weeks ago could now magnify gains. Hedge selling by dealers deepened the earlier decline, while hedge buying on a rally could now help support the recovery.

Volatility indicators are also emerging as a key variable. For the first time in months, implied volatility for Bitcoin, Ether and IBIT, BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund, has fallen below realized volatility, 10x Research said. In other words, the options market is pricing in less volatility than the market has actually delivered.

That suggests option prices may not be fully reflecting future volatility. If actual price swings exceed what the options market expects, directional trading could strengthen in the short term alongside a pickup in volatility.

The macro backdrop is also turning more supportive for a Bitcoin rebound. 10x Research said hopes for a peace deal involving Iran are lowering the inflation premium. Expectations that Kevin Warsh, as a new Federal Reserve chair, could adopt a dovish stance are also helping sentiment toward risk assets.

“The same market structure that intensified Bitcoin selling two weeks ago may now be in place to work in reverse,” 10x Research said.

Traders are now focused on whether Bitcoin can hold around current levels, a key variable for the near-term trend. If the options market’s gamma structure, lower implied volatility and easing geopolitical-risk expectations align, the rebound could gain momentum. Price swings may also widen ahead of key option expiries.