Bitcoin Rebounds to $65,000, but On-Chain Data Suggest Selling Pressure Still Lingers
Summary
- Bitcoin rebounded near the $60,000 level, but on-chain indicators suggest it is still too early to conclude the market has bottomed.
- The on-chain analyst said it is difficult to say broader market pressure has eased, given worsening miner profitability, weak risk-appetite indicators, and lingering selling pressure.
- He said the current market remains far from the bottom zone seen in past cycles based on the Puell Multiple, and that a trend recovery still requires further confirmation.
Forecast Trend Report by Period
Bitcoin has rebounded from around the $60,000 level, but on-chain indicators suggest it is still too early to declare a market bottom. The bounce was fueled in part by short liquidations, yet miner profitability and selling-pressure metrics remain a source of concern.
On June 15, on-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr. wrote on X, formerly Twitter, that miners are entering a stress zone as SpaceX's market capitalization has surpassed Bitcoin's.
Bitcoin's risk-appetite indicator remained in the red throughout the week, he wrote. Exchange netflows were negative 20,900 BTC, but selling pressure has yet to fully fade.
Negative exchange netflows mean more Bitcoin moved from exchanges to external wallets than flowed onto trading platforms. That would typically point to easing selling pressure. Even so, Adler said weaker miner profitability and a weak risk-appetite gauge suggest broader market stress has not yet cleared.
Bitcoin recently rebounded near the $60,000 level alongside liquidations of short positions. Forced closures of bearish bets sparked short-term buying and helped prices recover quickly. Even so, it is still unclear whether the move marks a trend reversal or only a temporary bounce during a broader decline.
Adler said the market remains far from the bottom zone seen in previous cycles, citing the Puell Multiple. The metric compares Bitcoin miners' daily revenue with its long-term average to assess miner profitability and whether the market is overheated or depressed.
In previous Bitcoin cycles, major bottoms often formed when miner profitability deteriorated sharply and the Puell Multiple fell to low levels. Adler's analysis suggests that despite the severity of the current correction, miner capitulation and other typical cycle-bottom signals have not yet fully appeared.
Market participants say Bitcoin's short-term rebound was aided by expectations of easing tensions between the US and Iran, along with short liquidations. Whether on-chain indicators support a broader recovery still requires further confirmation.
Minseung Kang
minriver@bloomingbit.ioBlockchain journalist | Writer of Trade Now & Altcoin Now, must-read content for investors.
