Bitfinex Says Bitcoin Rebounded After Defending $60,000, but Fresh Buying Remains Absent

Bitcoin rebounded after holding the $60,000 level, but the move appears to reflect easing selling pressure rather than fresh buying, Bitfinex said. Market structure suggests the selloff has paused for now, though strong demand has yet to appear.

In its Alpha report dated June 15, Bitfinex said Bitcoin repeatedly defended a low of $59,200 as Middle East tensions eased and expectations grew for a US-Iran ceasefire. It then rose 3.54% this week to close at $65,655.

The exchange said the rebound looks more like the result of exhausted selling pressure than an expansion in new demand. Futures open interest has fallen sharply from its May peak, while short-term holders sold Bitcoin at a loss. Exchange balances have also dropped to the lowest level in seven years, indicating the market has entered a phase of gradual deleveraging and easing sell-side pressure.

On-chain and fund-flow indicators, however, still point to weak demand. ETF flows remain in net outflow territory, and corporate treasury buying has slowed, the report said.

Potential selling by short-term holders also remains an overhang. Those investors are still sitting on unrealized losses of about 17% to 19%, meaning supply could come to market as prices rebound and holders seek to exit at break-even.

Bitfinex said Bitcoin is now trapped between two key price levels. On the downside, the cycle realized price near $54,000 is acting as support. On the upside, break-even selling pressure from short-term holders could emerge around $68,000.

The current market structure is one in which selling pressure has stopped but buying has not been confirmed, Bitfinex said. That suggests Bitcoin may be forming a short-term bottom, but a broader trend recovery would require improved ETF flows and fresh buying.

The macroeconomic backdrop remains another variable. US inflation for May rose to 4.2% as energy prices climbed amid Middle East conflict, while economic growth slowed to 1.6%, increasing stagflation concerns, according to the report.

At the same time, the prospect of an agreement between the US and Iran is offering some relief to markets. If the Strait of Hormuz reopens and the shock to energy supplies eases, pressure from inflation and real interest rates could recede, creating a more favorable backdrop for risk assets, Bitfinex said.

Institutionalization trends are also continuing. BlackRock has filed for a yield-enhanced Bitcoin ETF, while major Japanese banks are considering a joint issuance of yen stablecoins. Strategy also bought an additional 1,550 Bitcoin, bringing its total holdings to 845,256, the report said.

Market participants have taken Bitcoin's defense of the $60,000 level as a positive sign. Even so, the rebound is unlikely to be viewed as a full trend reversal until the token breaks through selling pressure near $68,000 and ETF and corporate buying recover.