Goldman Cuts Brent Forecast to $80 From $90, Sees Gulf Oil Trade Normalizing by End-July

Goldman Sachs now expects oil trade in the Persian Gulf to recover by the end of July, bringing forward its previous timeline by one month after the US and Iran agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The bank also lowered its oil price forecasts for this year and next.

On June 16, Goldman forecast that Brent crude, the international benchmark, will average $80 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026, down from its previous forecast of $90. It also cut its Brent outlook for next year to $75 a barrel from $80. For West Texas Intermediate, Goldman lowered its average price forecast to $75 for the fourth quarter of this year and $70 for next year.

The agreement moves up the return of Persian Gulf oil exports to prewar levels to the end of July from the end of August. Goldman also expects oil production in the region to recover to prewar levels by October.

Goldman estimated that crude shipments through the Strait of Hormuz would recover to 70% of prewar levels even if volumes increase by only 12 million barrels a day from current levels.

The bank also said additional oil supply could emerge next year. That could happen if Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates raise output above prewar levels to replenish depleted inventories in Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development countries, or if sanctions on Iranian oil are eased. In that case, Goldman projects a global crude surplus of as much as 3.2 million barrels a day next year.

Even so, Goldman expects Brent to hold around $75 a barrel, which it views as a long-term fair price. A full recovery in inventories is unlikely, it said, given large drawdowns in oil stockpiles across many countries in the first half and the possibility that governments will rebuild strategic reserves. The bank added that a geopolitical risk premium would support a floor under prices.

President Donald Trump and Iran's chief negotiator signed an agreement on June 16 to extend a fragile ceasefire by 60 days and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The move raised expectations that the energy shock would come to an end.

Brent fell more than 5% that day, closing at its lowest level since March 4.

Despite the more optimistic mood after the announcement, details of the memorandum of understanding have not yet been disclosed. The signing ceremony is scheduled for June 19 in Geneva, Switzerland, with US Vice President JD Vance and Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran's chief negotiator, set to attend.

Goldman analysts said risks remain, including the possibility that hostilities resume in the region, that mine-clearing operations delay the restart of shipping, or that nuclear talks stall and Iran closes the strait again.

Kim Jeong-a, contributing reporter, Hankyung.com, kja@hankyung.com