Wintermute Says Bitcoin Hasn’t Bottomed; ETF, Stablecoin Inflows Are Key
Summary
- Wintermute said Bitcoin offers an attractive risk-reward setup in the low-$60,000 range, but it has not yet bottomed.
- The firm said Bitcoin could still fall into the $50,000 range and identified inflows into spot ETFs and stablecoins as the key signals for a turning point.
- Wintermute said those capital inflow signals have yet to emerge, adding that there is little value in blindly chasing a short-term rebound.
Forecast Trend Report by Period
Crypto market maker Wintermute said Bitcoin has yet to bottom.
BlockBeats reported on June 17 that Wintermute said in a recent weekly report that risk appetite has recovered amid developments including a US-Iran ceasefire. The firm said Bitcoin has entered an attractive risk-reward zone in the low-$60,000 range. It also said repeated sharp declines have driven out short-term traders, reshaping holdings toward investors with stronger conviction.
Wintermute added that it is still difficult to say Bitcoin has reached a bottom. The firm said a drop into the $50,000 range cannot be ruled out before conditions materially improve.
Wintermute said capital flows deserve close attention. It said the turning point in the previous cycle coincided with steady growth in inflows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds and stablecoins. So far, those signals have not appeared, and chasing a short-term rebound indiscriminately makes little sense, the firm said.
As a near-term variable, Wintermute pointed to comments from Chair Kevin Warsh after the Federal Reserve's interest-rate decision due this week. Dovish remarks from Warsh could provide support for the crypto market, according to the report.
Another variable is the signing ceremony on June 19 for a memorandum of understanding to end the war between the US and Iran. Wintermute said the event could be a key factor in the crypto market's short-term direction.
JOON HYOUNG LEE
gilson@bloomingbit.ioCrypto Journalist based in Seoul
