Warsh’s First FOMC Delivers Hawkish Shock as Bitcoin Slips Back Into $64,000 Range

Bitcoin, which had rebounded on optimism ahead of a U.S.-Iran signing aimed at ending hostilities, has turned weaker again after the first Federal Open Market Committee meeting under Chair Kevin Warsh produced a hawkish hold. Until it retakes $66,200, traders may be better served watching whether support at $60,000 holds rather than chasing a rebound.

As of 5:50 p.m. on June 18, Bitcoin was trading at $64,470 on Binance’s USDT market, down about 0.61% from a day earlier. On Upbit, it changed hands at 97.17 million won ($70,400). The kimchi premium, which measures the gap between overseas and South Korean exchange prices, stood at about minus 1.92%.

Warsh’s First FOMC Marks Hawkish Turn as Rate-Hike Odds Rise

The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at the first FOMC meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh, but markets focused on the hawkish message. New York stocks and cryptocurrencies fell as expectations for rate cuts receded and the possibility of a rate increase later this year came into view.

On June 17, the Fed held its benchmark rate at 3.50% to 3.75% at its June FOMC meeting. It was the fourth straight pause this year. Nine of 18 Fed officials projected at least one rate increase this year. In March, none had expected a hike in 2026, highlighting a sharp hawkish shift in the policy outlook.

The median year-end policy rate in the dot plot rose to 3.8% from 3.4% in March. Inflation concerns are rising even as growth expectations weaken, reinforcing the view that the Fed is placing greater weight on fighting inflation than on supporting the economy. The statement also dropped language that had pointed to an easing bias, which markets read as another hawkish signal. President Donald Trump responded to the decision by saying, “That’s okay. It doesn’t matter.”

The Middle East remains another source of market pressure. The U.S. and Iran are set to hold a signing ceremony for a memorandum of understanding in Geneva on June 19, but debate continues over the details and whether a final agreement will be reached. Trump said a day earlier that the MOU with Iran was not a final deal and that “if I don’t like it, I’ll bomb again.” Even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens, it may take time for crude shipments to recover.

Markets are moving quickly to price in the risk of a rate hike. CME FedWatch data on June 18 showed fed funds futures implying about a 43% chance of a 25-basis-point increase by the end of December and about a 40% chance that rates remain unchanged. That compares with roughly 30% odds of a hike on June 15.

ETF Outflows Limit Demand Recovery, Leaving Bitcoin Rebound in Doubt

Against that backdrop, spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds posted net outflows of $319.3 million last week. Strategy’s renewed Bitcoin purchases and news of BlackRock’s covered-call Bitcoin ETF were cited as potential supports for sentiment. Still, Trump’s remarks that the U.S.-Iran memorandum was not a final agreement, along with his reference to renewed airstrikes, added to the market’s burden.

Glassnode said in a weekly research report that short-term Bitcoin holders remain underwater on average despite the recent rebound. The bounce provided some relief, but it was not enough to return recent buyers to net profit.

The firm added that buy-side liquidity in the spot market is improving and implied volatility is easing. As support from long-term capital gradually becomes more visible, the market is moving past a forced-selling phase and into a period of testing whether a bottom can form.

Bitfinex said in a weekly report that Bitcoin has rebounded about 13% from its recent low of $59,200, but that move reflects seller exhaustion and easing Middle East tensions more than fresh demand. A more durable recovery would require spot ETF flows to shift from temporary inflows to sustained net inflows. For now, the exchange expects Bitcoin to trade between support at $60,000 and resistance at $68,266.

Bitcoin Needs to Clear $66,200; Break Below $60,000 Would Hurt Recovery

Analysts say Bitcoin is likely to remain range-bound between $60,000 and $70,000 for now, with no clear bullish catalyst in place. In the near term, reclaiming $66,200 is the key test for any rebound. On the downside, failure to defend $60,000 could open the way to deeper losses.

Ayush Jindal, an analyst at NewsBTC, said Bitcoin could resume its decline if it fails to break above $66,200 resistance. Initial support is seen at $64,650 and $64,200, with further downside targets at $63,300 and $62,500. He added that $61,800 is the critical support level and that a break below it could make a short-term recovery difficult.

Julian Pineda, a market analyst at Forex.com, said a sideways pattern may persist for some time. He described $64,100 as a short-term neutral zone and said Bitcoin could remain stuck in a directionless range if it cannot move decisively away from that level. He added that $60,000 remains a key psychological support level that has come under renewed testing since 2024, and a break below it could keep sellers in control. A recovery above $70,000, another key psychological level, could revive buying in the weeks ahead.

Gerry O’Shea, head of global market insights at Hashdex, said Bitcoin is likely to trade in the $60,000 to $70,000 range over the next few weeks unless a clear catalyst emerges. Final signing of the CLARITY Act, a U.S. crypto market-structure bill, or further easing in tensions between the U.S. and Iran could help lift Bitcoin above the top of that range.

Still, derivatives markets point to room for a short-term rebound. Shayan, an on-chain analyst, said liquidation clusters on Binance are concentrated in the $67,000 to $69,000 range. If Bitcoin breaks through the current overhead supply zone, short liquidations could follow and add momentum toward $68,000 to $69,000. He added that if support at $64,000 fails, Bitcoin could first test the $62,000 to $63,000 area.

Kang Min-seung, Bloomingbit reporter minriver@bloomingbit.io