Bitcoin Focus May Shift From Rate-Cut Bets to Liquidity Under Waller, CryptoQuant Says

Bitcoin may be moving out of a phase dominated by interest-rate cut expectations and into one driven by actual liquidity and capital flows, according to a CryptoQuant analysis.

In a Quicktake report published June 21, CryptoQuant analyst XWIN Japan wrote that Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller's first Federal Open Market Committee meeting left rates unchanged while stepping back from forward guidance, signaling a shift in the Fed's communication approach.

Markets have until now reacted more strongly to expectations for future rate cuts than to actual policy changes, the report said. Bitcoin, too, has often moved less on the rate decision itself than on how investors interpreted the Fed's next step.

That dynamic could change under Waller. If forward guidance matters less, investors may have a harder time taking direction from Fed remarks alone and instead focus more on liquidity conditions and capital flows.

In the near term, that could weigh on Bitcoin. Greater policy uncertainty may raise volatility across risk assets and weaken flows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds.

XWIN said the more important change would be a structural one. In his view, Bitcoin could gradually shift from an asset tied to rate-cut expectations to one driven by actual liquidity.

The report pointed to Bitcoin ETF flows, the Coinbase premium, stablecoin liquidity, nominal demand and overall dollar liquidity as key indicators. Those measures help show whether fresh capital is actually entering the market.

"If Bitcoin can attract capital through ETF demand, on-chain activity and rising liquidity rather than a Fed narrative, that would mark an important shift in market structure," XWIN wrote.

"This year may mark not the end of the easing trade, but the end of the forward-guidance trade," he added. "Investors who succeed in the Waller era may be those who focus less on Fed commentary and more on where liquidity is actually flowing."