Nearly Half of Korean Retail Investors See Kospi Topping 10,000 This Year

Nearly one in two South Korean retail investors expects the Kospi to rise above 10,000 by year-end, with semiconductor stocks seen extending the market rally in the second half.

A June 22 survey by Shinhan Securities of 1,346 individual investors using its mobile trading system found 48.3% expect the Kospi to exceed 10,000 this year. The largest group, 27.9%, projected the benchmark index would finish between 10,000 and 10,999, while 13.1% said it could climb to 12,000 or higher.

Semiconductors and related materials, parts and equipment companies were the overwhelming pick to lead South Korea's stock market in the second half, drawing 81.3% of responses. The results point to continued concentration in a single industry as investors bet on expanding artificial intelligence spending and growth in the high-bandwidth memory, or HBM, market.

Defense and aerospace ranked next at 6.0%, followed by power and secondary batteries at 5.6%, transport and robotics at 4.0%, and biotech and pharmaceuticals at 1.8%.

Interest rates and exchange rates were cited most often as the key variables for the stock market in the second half, at 58.7%. Oil prices and inflation followed at 12.3%, ahead of overseas geopolitical conflicts at 11.2% and foreign stock markets at 10.4%.

The stock-market rally has also spurred more individuals to enter the market. New investors who began stock investing in earnest within the past year accounted for 40.0% of respondents, with 16.0% starting in the second half of 2025 and 24.0% beginning in the first half of 2026.

In portfolio allocations, individual Kospi stocks accounted for the largest share at 55.9%. Exchange-traded funds made up 29.5%, while overseas stocks accounted for 7.1%. Only 3.4% said safe assets such as cash and bonds made up the largest share of their holdings.

The survey offers an indicator of how quickly retail investors are entering the market and where their sentiment is headed, a Shinhan Securities official said. The company plans to keep tracking retail investors' preferences and market perceptions through additional surveys and data analysis.

Noh Jeong-dong, Hankyung.com reporter dong2@hankyung.com