Polymarket Odds of CLARITY Act Becoming Law by Year-End Drop to 48% From 74%
Summary
- Polymarket put the odds of the CLARITY Act being signed into law in 2026 at 48%%.
- That estimate fell 26 percentage points in a month from 74%%.
- The market sees the fate of the CLARITY Act as a key factor in reducing regulatory uncertainty for crypto in the US.
Forecast Trend Report by Period
The odds of the CLARITY Act, a US crypto market-structure bill, becoming law by year-end have fallen sharply over the past month.
Cointelegraph said in an X post on June 22 that Polymarket put the probability of the CLARITY Act being signed into law in 2026 at 48%.
That compares with 74% a month earlier, according to Polymarket. The 26-percentage-point drop suggests prediction-market expectations for the bill to clear this year have retreated sharply.
The CLARITY Act is a key bill to overhaul the US digital-asset market structure. It addresses regulatory jurisdiction over cryptocurrencies, obligations for market participants and the framework for market oversight.
The market is focused on whether the bill advances because its passage could help reduce regulatory uncertainty for crypto in the US. With prediction-market odds now below 50%, uncertainty around the legislative process this year is back in focus.
Minseung Kang
minriver@bloomingbit.ioBlockchain journalist | Writer of Trade Now & Altcoin Now, must-read content for investors.
