Bernstein Raises Targets on Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron, Says Memory Price Surge Is Driving Up AI Costs

Bernstein sharply raised its price targets for Samsung Electronics Co., SK Hynix Inc. and Micron Technology Inc., saying higher memory prices are lifting the cost of artificial intelligence infrastructure while profit gains for major memory makers could exceed market expectations.

Crypto-focused media outlet BlockBeats reported on June 22 that Bernstein said in a report that rising memory-chip prices are spreading beyond consumer electronics into AI infrastructure.

Bernstein said conventional DRAM prices have risen about 4.5 times since the third quarter of 2025. High-bandwidth memory, or HBM, has yet to fully reflect that increase because it is sold under annual contracts.

That increases the chances of HBM price renegotiations in 2027 between memory suppliers and GPU and XPU makers. Bernstein projects HBM prices could rise twofold to 2.5-fold next year.

Higher HBM prices could also affect AI data-center costs. Bernstein estimated that if Nvidia Corp. seeks to maintain a gross margin of about 75% after higher HBM costs, it may need to pass through roughly four times the increase to customers.

The report said total capital spending for an AI data center based on a Vera Rubin NVL72 rack could rise about 15% once higher HBM prices and cost pass-through are reflected. If increases in conventional DRAM and NAND prices are added, the total cost burden could reach about 30%.

Bernstein said cloud companies will continue investing in AI, but higher costs make a reassessment of returns unavoidable. Supply-chain pricing, customer cost-sharing and token pricing could also come under pressure.

Even so, Bernstein maintained an outperform rating on Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix and Micron and raised its price targets on all three.

Bernstein lifted its target on Samsung Electronics common shares to 440,000 won from 225,000 won, and raised its target on SK Hynix to 3.3 million won from 1.15 million won. It increased its Micron target to $1,300 from $510. Bernstein's 2027 earnings-per-share estimates are 26% above market consensus for Samsung, 32% higher for SK Hynix and 38% higher for Micron.

Bernstein said Samsung could take the lead in HBM4 technology and use that to expand market share. It said a higher HBM mix does not necessarily translate into stronger profitability immediately because conventional DRAM is currently more profitable than HBM.

Separately, Bernstein maintained an underperform rating on Kioxia Holdings Corp., which has no HBM business. It also said Asian ASIC service providers could benefit if cloud companies choose to source HBM directly to avoid cost pass-through from GPU and XPU vendors.

Bernstein warned that the memory market could slow again in 2028. Even if prices normalize, DRAM industry gross margins could remain around 70%, a level that would still be above the peaks seen in most previous upcycles.