Brent, WTI Settle at Four-Month Lows as Strait of Hormuz Tensions Ease

International oil prices fell to their lowest levels in four months as fears of a military clash between the U.S. and Iran receded. The drop came as crude shipments through the Strait of Hormuz resumed and concern over disruptions to Iranian oil supply eased. Still, some market participants say it is too early to assume oil will keep falling, with disputes over nuclear inspections and sanctions unresolved.

On June 23, August Brent futures settled at $77.08 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe, down 1.05% from the previous session. July West Texas Intermediate futures settled at $73.21 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, down 0.88%. Brent closed at its lowest level since Feb. 27, while WTI finished at its lowest since March 2.

Traders are now watching how quickly crude shipments through the Strait of Hormuz can return to normal. Three very large crude carriers passed through the waterway on June 23, and some vessels moved through the strait with their satellite tracking signals switched on.

The International Maritime Organization, a United Nations agency, launched a large-scale operation to evacuate hundreds of vessels and 11,000 seafarers stranded in Gulf waters through the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. government also announced a 60-day sanctions waiver for Iran, easing concern over disruptions to Iranian crude supply.

Even so, some investors say the market may be too optimistic as follow-up talks between the two countries continue. The U.S. and Iran are disputing whether nuclear inspections will resume. President Donald Trump said on June 23 that inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency would be deployed to sites related to Iran's nuclear facilities at an appropriate time.

The Wall Street Journal cited Mark Malek, chief investment officer at Siebert Financial, as saying in a report that the market was "overconfident" about a favorable outcome and was assigning too little weight to the risk of disputes over the nuclear issue and inspections.

"The most likely scenario is neither a breakthrough nor a collapse in talks, but an extended period of managed uncertainty," he wrote. "In that case, a certain risk premium will remain embedded in energy prices."

Kang Kyung-ju, Hankyung.com reporter qurasoha@hankyung.com