21Shares Sees Bitcoin Rebounding to $100,000 by Year-End in Echo of Past Halving Cycles

Global asset manager 21Shares said Bitcoin could climb to $100,000 by the end of this year.

The firm said in its "Crypto Market Outlook for the First Half of 2026," released June 24 and cited by The Block, that Bitcoin could recover to the $100,000 level by year-end.

21Shares said Bitcoin's recent price action resembles patterns seen after previous halving events. It added that the current correction has been far milder than the drawdowns of more than 80% seen in past cycles.

The firm also highlighted that Bitcoin has not fallen to the average investor cost basis of $54,000. It said Bitcoin has avoided the clear capitulation phase seen in previous bear markets, a sign of a more mature market and stronger capital flows.

The exchange-traded product, or ETP, market has also remained relatively stable, 21Shares said. As of May, global crypto ETP assets under management stood at $140 billion, down about 15% from the start of the year.

The decline in assets under management was driven more by falling prices than by large-scale liquidations, the firm said. It added that while US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds posted $3 billion in net outflows, underlying assets allocated to Bitcoin remained close to cycle-peak levels.

Growth in prediction markets also stood out. Global prediction market trading volume reached $57.5 billion as of the end of last month, according to 21Shares. That has already exceeded half of the firm's full-year forecast. It said trading tied to the World Cup and the US midterm elections could push annual volume close to $200 billion in the second half.

Total value locked in decentralized finance, or DeFi, held at about $140 billion. That was little changed from the start of the year and remained well below 21Shares' earlier forecast of $300 billion. The firm said a string of hacking incidents this year has been a key factor limiting inflows into DeFi.