a16z Says Prediction-Market Weekly Volume Hits Record $14.4 Billion for Third Straight Week

Weekly trading volume on prediction-market platforms climbed to a record for a third consecutive week, with World Cup-related activity rising alongside growth in non-sports markets such as politics, the economy and geopolitics.

A16z Crypto said on June 25 that total weekly trading volume across prediction markets reached $14.4 billion last week, the highest level on record.

Weekly prediction-market volume has expanded from roughly $5 billion to $6 billion at the start of this year to $14.4 billion last week, according to a16z. The previous record was about $10 billion, set just a week earlier.

Total prediction-market volume was more than 10 times higher than a year earlier.

Open interest also hit a record. A16z said prediction-market open interest reached $1.6 billion last week, marking a third straight weekly record.

"Open interest can only increase when new positions are opened faster than existing positions are closed," a16z said. "The recent increase shows that more capital is being committed to prediction markets."

Prediction-market open interest has risen steadily since last fall. It was below $200 million at the time and has since increased to $1.6 billion, about an eightfold gain.

The World Cup helped drive the increase in prediction-market trading, though growth outside sports was also strong. A16z said combined weekly non-sports volume on Kalshi and Polymarket reached $3.6 billion last week.

Non-sports trading includes politics, the economy, geopolitics and major current-events events. A16z said last week's non-sports volume alone exceeded total prediction-market volume for all of last year.

In July last year, weekly non-sports volume was about $200 million. It has since risen about 18-fold, with growth accelerating this month.

The simultaneous rise in trading volume and open interest has also drawn greater market attention to prediction-market platforms. Trading demand centered on Kalshi and Polymarket is expanding beyond sports to macroeconomic, political and geopolitical events.