Galaxy Research Cuts 2026 Clarity Act Passage Odds to 50% From 60%
Summary
- Galaxy Research said it cut the odds that the Clarity Act, a US crypto market-structure bill, will pass in 2026 to 50% from 60%.
- Thorn said pressure on the Senate calendar, a lack of progress in negotiations, and President Donald Trump's remarks on the SAVE Act are weighing on the Clarity Act's chances.
- Thorn added that the odds of enactment this year remain strong, and that 50-50 is still a fairly high probability for a bill of this size and complexity.
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Galaxy Research cut its estimate for the chances that the Clarity Act, a US crypto market-structure bill, will pass in 2026 to 50% from 60%. The firm cited a tighter Senate calendar and slow progress in negotiations.
The Block reported on June 29 that Alex Thorn, Galaxy Research's head of research, wrote in a recent report that the bill's chances have slipped from a few weeks ago as the Senate schedule has tightened and negotiations have made little headway. He now sees the odds of the Clarity Act passing in 2026 as 50-50.
Thorn said the downgrade reflects Senate scheduling constraints rather than the substance of the bill itself. Galaxy Research had already lowered its estimate to 60% on June 5. No floor vote has been scheduled yet, and no procedural step to begin Senate consideration is on the calendar.
He also said President Donald Trump's recent remarks are adding pressure to the legislative timetable. Trump warned last week that he would not sign housing-related legislation unless Congress passes the SAVE Act. Thorn wrote that the added strain on the Senate agenda is also hurting the Clarity Act's chances.
"A bill that needs 60 votes still has to get through a unified draft from the Banking and Agriculture committees, the motion to proceed, floor debate, amendments and then action in the House," Thorn wrote. "The time left is quickly shrinking to just a matter of weeks."
He said Senate Majority Leader John Thune needs to announce floor time for the bill by early July. Without that, the measure could slip to September, when the midterm election backdrop could make it harder to schedule a contentious vote.
Even so, Thorn said the chances of enactment this year remain strong. For a bill of this size and complexity, 50-50 is still a fairly high probability, he added.
The Clarity Act would split oversight of digital assets between the US Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, while giving the CFTC primary authority over most crypto assets.
Minseung Kang
minriver@bloomingbit.ioBlockchain journalist | Writer of Trade Now & Altcoin Now, must-read content for investors.