Bitcoin ETF ‘Steady Buying’ Thesis Fades in Under Two Years as 100,000 BTC Exits in 2026
Summary
- More than 100,000 BTC has flowed out of spot Bitcoin ETFs this year, Darkfost said.
- Losses tied to the decline in Bitcoin ETF holdings have topped $11 billion, which he described as historic.
- Expectations that Bitcoin ETFs would provide a sustained source of buying did not last even two years, he said.
Forecast Trend Report by Period
More than 100,000 BTC has flowed out of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds this year, crypto analyst Darkfost said.
Writing on X on June 30, Darkfost said ETF outflows have not let up. He added that more than 100,000 BTC has left ETF issuers’ holdings for the first time since the products were launched.
The figure reflects only the decline recorded this year, he wrote. Measured from October 2025, when ETF holdings reached an all-time high, the cumulative drop now exceeds 160,000 BTC.
Darkfost described the decline as the deepest drawdown yet for Bitcoin ETFs. He estimated losses tied to the reduction at more than $11 billion, calling it historic.
He put the realized price for ETF holders at about $73,000. The on-chain metric shows the average price at which investors acquired the Bitcoin they hold.
With Bitcoin now trading below that level, many investors holding the token through ETFs have moved into loss territory.
"Bear markets spare no one," Darkfost wrote. "Even ETFs and large players like BlackRock are no exception."
In a follow-up comment, he said expectations that ETFs would provide a sustained source of buying "didn't even last two years." The remark suggests investors in spot Bitcoin ETFs have not been immune to redemptions and selling pressure during the price downturn, despite earlier expectations that the products would drive long-term institutional demand.
Minseung Kang
minriver@bloomingbit.ioBlockchain journalist | Writer of Trade Now & Altcoin Now, must-read content for investors.