TD Cowen Cuts Strategy Price Target to $260 From $400, Lowers Bitcoin Forecast

TD Cowen cut its price target on Strategy to $260 from $400 while maintaining a buy rating, and said the company’s newly announced capital-management framework was constructive.

Crypto-focused media outlet The Block reported on June 30 that TD Cowen lowered its target on Strategy by about 35%. The firm said the cut reflected a weaker outlook for Bitcoin prices rather than Strategy’s newly announced digital credit capital framework.

TD Cowen now expects Bitcoin to reach about $100,000 by the end of 2026, down from its previous forecast of about $140,000. It also lowered its year-end 2027 Bitcoin target to $135,000 from $190,000.

The firm left unchanged its forecast for how much Bitcoin Strategy will buy in the future, as well as its earnings-multiple assumptions. The $260 target implies upside of more than 200% from Strategy’s June 29 closing price of $92.68.

TD Cowen also viewed Strategy’s new capital framework favorably, saying the plan would improve credit visibility and give the company more flexibility in managing capital.

Strategy’s dollar reserves have been replenished to $2.55 billion. The firm said Strategy issued more than 12 million common shares last week but did not buy additional Bitcoin.

TD Cowen said the move could help restore investor confidence that Strategy can withstand a prolonged Bitcoin bear market. Strategy plans to maintain dollar reserves equal to at least 12 months of preferred dividend payments and interest costs. Current reserves can cover more than 17 months, rising to about 26 months when Bitcoin available for monetization is included.

Strategy has also established repurchase programs of up to $1 billion each for preferred shares and common stock. TD Cowen said that marked a shift away from the company’s previous one-way reliance on stock issuance and toward more active management of its capital structure.

The Bitcoin monetization program is capped at $1.25 billion. TD Cowen said the program does not signal a strategic shift, adding that the possibility of selectively selling Bitcoin to support dividend payments when needed was already reflected in its existing model.

TD Cowen also cited an increase in the dividend rate on STRC preferred stock. Strategy raised the STRC dividend rate to 12.0% from 11.5%. The firm said the move shows Strategy is treating STRC not just as a funding tool, but as an instrument managed to trade near its $100 par value.

TD Cowen said STRC recently traded at as much as a 26% discount to par during Bitcoin’s latest decline. It described the dividend increase as a modest positive for price stability and investor confidence.