PiCK
Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Supply Hits Record, Raising Prospect of Earlier Cycle Bottom
Summary
- On-chain analysis showed that Bitcoin long-term holder supply has reached a record high, suggesting this cycle's bottom could form earlier than expected.
- Zhuoer Jiang cited Strategy's mNAV, a bottom price of $42,000 to $44,000, and the possibility of a bottom forming between October and December 2026 in outlining Bitcoin's outlook.
- Grayscale and Galaxy Digital said delays in passing the Clarity Act could lead to additional deleveraging and further declines in Bitcoin.
Forecast Trend Report by Period
A record amount of Bitcoin held by long-term investors is fueling speculation that the current market cycle could bottom sooner than expected.
Cory Klippsten, chief executive officer of Swan Bitcoin, told Cointelegraph in an interview published June 30 that the amount of Bitcoin held in long-term holder addresses had reached an all-time high. Historically, that metric has coincided with cycle bottoms.
Data from on-chain analytics platform Glassnode showed long-term holders controlled a record 14.7 million Bitcoin as of June 30. CoinGlass put the figure at 16.65 million Bitcoin, up 14% from 14.6 million on Nov. 26, 2025. CoinGlass defines long-term holders as addresses that have held Bitcoin for more than 155 days.
Klippsten said the data suggests this cycle's bottom may form earlier than in previous downturns. Others in the market disagree.
Zhuoer Jiang, founder of mining pool Lubian, said Bitcoin has typically bottomed about six months after Strategy's multiple of net asset value, or mNAV, reaches its cycle low. Based on that framework, he projected Bitcoin could bottom between October and December 2026 at $42,000 to $44,000.
He added that Strategy's mNAV has already fallen to 0.72, approaching the 0.7 trough recorded on May 11, 2022.
Regulatory uncertainty is also weighing on demand for Bitcoin. In a recent report, Grayscale Head of Research Zach Pandl said Bitcoin could decline further if the Clarity Act, a US crypto market structure bill, fails to pass this year. That outcome could push crypto treasury companies including Strategy into additional deleveraging. Galaxy Digital cut the odds of the bill becoming law by 2026 to 50% and said the US Senate is running out of time to act before its August recess.
The Clarity Act is scheduled for a House committee hearing on July 17. The bill seeks to establish the first regulatory framework for digital assets in the US, but it has drawn opposition from the banking industry over a provision that would allow interest payments on stablecoin holdings.
Minseung Kang
minriver@bloomingbit.ioBlockchain journalist | Writer of Trade Now & Altcoin Now, must-read content for investors.