US Is Polymarket’s Biggest Political Betting Market Despite Access Ban

The US remains Polymarket’s largest national market for political betting even though the crypto-based prediction platform blocks American users.

Cointelegraph reported on July 3 that blockchain research firm Allium said in a recent report that US users account for the biggest single-country political betting market on Polymarket by contract volume and wallet count.

Allium said the access restrictions have failed to stop US participation. Instead, they have made the US Polymarket’s largest single political market by trading volume. Demand still exists, but activity has moved offshore and outside the reach of US authorities.

Polymarket agreed to a $1.4 million settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in 2022 and then blocked US users from accessing its global platform. Allium’s analysis suggests the measure has had little practical effect.

A separate study published in June by Rutgers University statistician Harry Crane reached a similar conclusion. Crane estimated that US users traded between $10.6 billion and $26.7 billion on Polymarket from May 2025 through April 2026. That estimate came despite Polymarket’s efforts to block US IP addresses and VPNs.

Allium said US users showed particularly strong interest in Iran war-related markets. Five of the top 12 markets by US trading volume were tied to Iran war bets, while interest in election markets was relatively weaker. US money has recently been concentrated in overseas conflicts such as the Iran war, while election markets favored by global users have largely been ignored.