Samsung, SK Hynix Tipped to Top Micron as Q2 Memory Market Hits $254 Billion

The global memory-chip market is projected to expand to about $254.4 billion in the second quarter, underscoring expectations that a memory supercycle is taking hold. DRAM and NAND prices rose more than 50% from the previous quarter as investment in artificial intelligence servers accelerated. After Micron Technology reported results that handily beat expectations, hopes are rising that Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix will also deliver blockbuster second-quarter earnings.

Samsung, SK Hynix Seen Outperforming Micron

Counterpoint Research said in its Memory Tracker on July 3 that the global memory market will grow more than 60% from the previous quarter to about $254.4 billion in the second quarter. That would be a 380% jump from a year earlier.

The main driver was rising memory prices. Counterpoint said both DRAM and NAND prices climbed more than 50% from the prior quarter in the second quarter. Demand for server memory increased rapidly as spending on AI infrastructure continued.

Micron's latest earnings have already reflected that backdrop. The company's fiscal third-quarter revenue for March through May totaled $41.456 billion, up 346% from a year earlier. That was well above its guidance of about $33.5 billion and the market consensus of about $35.8 billion.

Counterpoint said Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix may post earnings surprises even larger than Micron's. The firm said it expects both companies to deliver stronger results than Micron.

Samsung, SK Hynix Poised for Q2 Surprise, With Second-Half Risks Looming

According to Hankyung's Epic AI consensus, Samsung Electronics is estimated to post second-quarter revenue of 172.6778 trillion won and operating profit of 84.5993 trillion won. That would be up 131.6% and 1,709.2%, respectively, from a year earlier. Operating margin is forecast at 49.0%.

Semiconductors are expected to drive most of the performance. Samsung's Device Solutions division is estimated to have generated second-quarter revenue of 124.7909 trillion won and operating profit of 83.5446 trillion won. Within that, memory revenue is projected at 117.0549 trillion won and operating profit at 84.7453 trillion won.

By product, DRAM operating profit is projected at 63.8173 trillion won and NAND operating profit at 21.1066 trillion won. The foundry business, by contrast, is expected to post an operating loss of 1.1813 trillion won. The figures point to a setup in which the memory boom lifts Samsung's overall earnings even as foundry losses persist.

Expectations for SK Hynix have also risen. The company is estimated to post second-quarter revenue of 84.1974 trillion won and operating profit of 64.4448 trillion won. That would represent increases of 278.7% and 599.5%, respectively, from a year earlier. Operating margin is forecast at 76.5%.

DRAM is expected to account for most of SK Hynix's profit. Second-quarter DRAM operating profit is projected at 51.0794 trillion won, while NAND operating profit is seen at 13.3765 trillion won. Higher prices appear to have boosted both DRAM and NAND. Combined second-quarter operating profit for the two companies is projected at 149.0441 trillion won.

Full-year earnings estimates have also climbed sharply. Samsung Electronics is estimated to post 2026 revenue of 718.5344 trillion won and operating profit of 369.6966 trillion won. SK Hynix is forecast to report revenue of 353.4293 trillion won and operating profit of 272.7555 trillion won. Their combined full-year operating profit is projected at 642.4521 trillion won.

Counterpoint said Samsung's memory business is expected to surpass 110 trillion won for the first time, while SK Hynix is also set for strong growth. Differences may emerge depending on the timing of long-term supply agreements and provisions for performance bonuses, but the market's growth trend remains clear, the firm added.

Still, the second half may face headwinds from demand pressure caused by higher prices and the effect of long-term contracts. Counterpoint said rising memory prices are pushing up manufacturing costs and feeding through to consumer prices, which is beginning to weigh on product demand. Fixed pricing under long-term contracts may also slow the market's upward momentum in the second half.

Samsung Electronics will release preliminary second-quarter earnings on July 7, and SK Hynix is scheduled to announce preliminary results on July 29.

Hong Min-seong, Hankyung.com reporter mshong@hankyung.com