Bernstein Keeps $150,000 Bitcoin Target for Year-End, Calls Pullback Milder Than Past Cycles

Bernstein maintained its year-end price target of $150,000 for Bitcoin, saying the current correction is shallower than in past cycles even after the token fell 54% from its peak.

The Block reported on July 6 that Gautam Chhugani's team at Bernstein wrote in a client note that Bitcoin has dropped about 54% from its October 2025 peak of roughly $125,000. That compares with declines of 75% to 90% typically seen at the end of previous cycles, making the current pullback relatively moderate. Bitcoin recently retested a low near $60,000 before rebounding to about $63,000, and traded at around $62,600 as of July 6.

Bernstein also noted that the correction is now in its third quarter since the cycle peak. Historically, Bitcoin downcycles have lasted 12 to 15 months, and the current correction has not yet reached that range. The firm added that it remains unclear whether the market has fully emerged from its downturn.

Fund flows have held up better than sentiment, Bernstein said. Net Bitcoin inflows from corporate treasury purchases and exchange-traded funds totaled $10 billion in 2026, down sharply from $60 billion in 2025. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $5.5 billion in net outflows this year, but corporate buying by companies such as Strategy kept overall net flows positive against an asset base of $74 billion, according to the firm.

Bernstein also dismissed concerns over selling pressure from Strategy. The company has spent about $17.5 billion in 2026 to acquire an additional 175,000 Bitcoin, bringing its total holdings to 847,363 Bitcoin. Its debt amounts to about 13% of the collateral value of its Bitcoin holdings, and its next principal repayment is not due until the third quarter of 2028, when about $1 billion comes due. Bernstein added that Strategy has enough liquidity to cover dividends and interest for more than 17 months, reducing the risk of large forced sales. Still, the firm said Strategy has left open the possibility of selling as much as $1.25 billion of Bitcoin to fund dividend and interest payments, replenish dollar reserves and support share buybacks.

Bernstein also flagged the potential exit of major US Bitcoin miners as a variable to watch. The firm said US-listed miners shifting to AI data centers could abandon Bitcoin mining entirely, with their share of hashrate likely to be absorbed by miners in Southeast Asia, Central Asia and Latin America. Total network hashrate has fallen by an average of about 11% this year.

Bernstein also cited a more favorable regulatory backdrop as a positive factor. The firm pointed to ongoing discussions over implementation rules for the GENIUS Act, a stablecoin regulation bill, and the launch in the US of perpetual cryptocurrency futures trading through Kalshi and Coinbase. The market for tokenized real-world assets has reached a record roughly $52 billion. Bernstein said its $150,000 year-end target is ambitious given the current correction, but added that the cycle will eventually turn and that it continues to watch for signs of recovery in Bitcoin fund flows.