Trump Caught in Hormuz Dilemma as Iran Holds Firm and War Risks Rise

President Donald Trump’s response to Iran is increasingly being cast as a dilemma with no easy exit. Iran has shown no sign of retreating in the Strait of Hormuz, while the US is struggling to avoid the costs of a broader conflict.

CNN on July 9 compared Trump’s position to the Penrose stairs, an endless staircase that returns to the same point. The analogy underscored a situation stuck in place without meaningful progress.

Trump’s recent comments have added to the uncertainty. He said he considered a memorandum of understanding to end the war effectively over and used harsh language in describing Iran. He later clarified that this did not mean hostilities would resume, before again warning Tehran it would pay a more serious price.

Military exchanges between the US and Iran have continued since July 7. The clash began after Washington raised objections to attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz.

The New York Times said the two sides appear to be slipping into a cycle of violence. It said the memorandum to end the war was reached without a sufficient mechanism to contain armed confrontation or enough trust to sustain follow-up negotiations.

Iran has also shown signs it does not intend to give up control of the Strait of Hormuz even after the memorandum. It has continued attacks on tankers to pressure the US.

For Tehran, preserving its influence over the strait may be more advantageous than securing sanctions relief and reconstruction funding through negotiations with Washington. There is also speculation that pragmatists and hard-liners are at odds within Iran’s leadership.

Trump’s problem is that his options are limited. With the November midterm elections approaching, any escalation would carry a heavy political cost. The decision to seek a memorandum ending the fighting has been interpreted as an attempt to limit the damage ahead of the vote.

Oil prices are another variable. Crude, which had stabilized after the memorandum was signed, is rising sharply again as fighting between the US and Iran continues. A further jump tied to escalation could inflame public sentiment in the US.

A military response may not provide a clear solution either. Since attacks on commercial vessels can be carried out with just a few drones, it is unclear whether escalation could fully eliminate Iran’s ability to threaten the Strait of Hormuz.

At the same time, Washington would find it difficult to step back from the waterway. A retreat could bring criticism that the US had only expanded Iran’s influence. It would also risk creating the impression that Washington had effectively conceded defeat.

Even a return to the negotiating table would leave major obstacles to a final agreement. More than one-third of the 60-day period for follow-up talks has already passed. Iran is also showing internal divisions over inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency, which the US sees as a key outcome.

Lee Song-ryeol, Hankyung.com reporter yisr0203@hankyung.com