Iran Digs In Until Trump ‘TACOs’ as Strait of Hormuz Clash Drags On

The US and Iran remain deadlocked over transit through the Strait of Hormuz and are continuing to exchange limited strikes. Each side is holding a hard line on the assumption that the other will eventually back down, raising concerns that the low-intensity conflict could drag on.

US Central Command announced on July 12 that it had launched additional airstrikes on Iran. As with earlier attacks, it said the operation was intended to weaken Tehran’s ability to attack commercial vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz. The US military has struck Iran on four days over the past week since July 7.

Iran has also retaliated against US bases in nearby Gulf states. Tehran had earlier announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Missile warning sirens sounded across Bahrain, home to the US Navy’s Fifth Fleet headquarters, according to the Associated Press and other media reports. The strait was effectively sealed off again. Six ships passed through the waterway that day, the fewest in the past five weeks, according to ship-tracking firm Kpler.

The moves have fueled analysis that Iran is making a high-stakes bet to maintain control of the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran is seen as counting on President Donald Trump’s need to consider oil prices and the midterm elections, and has shifted to a strategy of endurance. Chatham House, a British think tank, said Iran is “gambling” and calculating that it can wear down the US while absorbing a low-intensity conflict. As geopolitical tensions in the Middle East intensified, September Brent crude futures rose 4% to $79 a barrel.

The danger is that Iran, convinced it has the upper hand, could overplay its position and trigger a full-scale war. The Wall Street Journal wrote that Iran will keep up the pressure because it fundamentally believes Trump does not want to resume the war. But there are too many ways events could go wrong, including the possibility that a US service member could be killed in the fighting, the newspaper added.

Another source of unease is the growing voice of hard-liners in Iran since the funeral of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Chatham House said Iran’s new government has not yet been tested and described it as “a new Iran,” not the one seen in the past. The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace said Iran would become a more violent regime and had drawn the lesson that war can force concessions through coercion.

Analysis has also emerged that Iran is trying to cement its position as the region’s dominant power by seizing the initiative in the Strait of Hormuz. The Wall Street Journal wrote that Tehran believes permanent control of the strait and dominance over the Persian Gulf economy would lead to US sanctions relief. It added that the attendance of senior officials from Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Oman at Khamenei’s funeral after Iranian drone attacks on those countries points to shifting regional ties.

Han Myeong-hyeon, Hankyung.com reporter, wise@hankyung.com