Bitcoin Holds $62,000 Despite US Strikes, Strait of Hormuz Tensions

Bitcoin held the $62,000 level despite US strikes on Iran and tensions over the Strait of Hormuz, in a sign that selling pressure may be easing.

Crypto market maker Wintermute wrote on X on July 14 that Bitcoin stayed above $62,000 and was barely rattled despite the US strikes and a declaration to close the Strait of Hormuz.

"Weak hands appear to have already left the market," Wintermute said. Eight straight weeks of ETF outflows also ended with about $282 million of inflows.

Still, the firm said it was too early to call that a trend reversal. "This is an inflection point, not a trend," it said. "We need to see sustained inflows."

Macro conditions remain the market's main overhang. Wintermute said oil prices have climbed to around $79 a barrel and the odds of a September rate increase have risen to about 61%. This week's consumer price index report will directly affect the Federal Open Market Committee's July 28-29 meeting, it added.

Wintermute said the crypto market appears better able to absorb shocks than before. In its view, the market withstood a geopolitical shock that would have been difficult to bear in March. Bitcoin held the $62,000 line despite three US strikes and the declaration to close the Strait of Hormuz.

Ethereum traded around $1,805 and rose 1.3% on the week, outperforming Bitcoin, according to Wintermute. Bitcoin gained about 0.3% for the week and rebounded about 2% from its weekly low.

Wintermute also viewed the market's response to Strategy's Bitcoin sale positively. The company sold 3,588 Bitcoin for about $216 million to raise funds for preferred stock dividends, but the impact on the market was limited. "Two months ago, the sale of just 32 Bitcoin was enough to trigger selling," Wintermute said. "This time, even a sale of 3,588 Bitcoin drew almost no reaction."

The next key variables are the CPI report, whether ETF inflows continue and how oil prices react to developments involving the Strait of Hormuz. "The market has stopped falling for now, but it has not started recovering yet," Wintermute said.

It added that a softer CPI reading, continued ETF inflows and progress on the Clarity Act could support a recovery toward previous highs. Wintermute said $67,250 would be the resistance level confirming a rebound. If CPI comes in hot and tensions around the Strait of Hormuz persist, Bitcoin could retest $62,000 and then $60,000.