Prediction Markets Hit Record $113.8 Billion in Q2 Volume Despite Crypto Slump

Global prediction markets posted a record trading volume in the second quarter.

CoinGecko said in its 2026 second-quarter crypto industry report, cited by Cointelegraph on July 16, that nominal prediction-market volume reached a quarterly record of $113.8 billion.

Political and sports contracts drove the growth. A single Polymarket contract on the World Cup winner generated more than $3.3 billion in volume.

Prediction-market activity peaked last month as this year's World Cup began. Monthly nominal volume surged to a record $50.7 billion, nearly 92% higher than the average of the previous five months, according to CoinGecko.

Kalshi remained the market leader with a 58.9% share. Polymarket's share fell to 30.2% in the second quarter from 35.8% in the previous quarter. Robinhood-backed Rotter Market ranked fourth by market share.

By contrast, major crypto market indicators all declined. Spot volume at the top 10 centralized exchanges fell 27.9% to $1.95 trillion in the second quarter from $2.7 trillion in the first quarter. Perpetual futures volume also shrank about 10% to $12.7 trillion.

Spot volume at the top 10 decentralized exchanges dropped to $408.9 billion in the second quarter from $556.4 billion in the first quarter. The stablecoin market fell 1.6% to $305.1 billion.