Bernstein Raises Robinhood Price Target to $160, Sees Prediction-Market Revenue Surpassing Crypto

Bernstein raised its price target on Robinhood Markets Inc. to $160 from $130 and said revenue from prediction markets is set to surpass the company’s crypto trading revenue.

The Block reported on July 20 that Bernstein reiterated its outperform rating on Robinhood while lifting its target price. Analyst Gautam Chhugani wrote that broker-dealers, traditional exchanges, prediction platforms and crypto exchanges will compete over the next two years for a $70 billion fee pool tied to prediction markets, perpetual futures, tokenized stocks and computing-linked contracts. Robinhood is well positioned in that landscape, he added.

Bernstein identified prediction markets as Robinhood’s most important near-term growth driver. The firm estimates revenue from Robinhood’s prediction markets will grow at a 64% compound annual rate through 2028 to reach $1.7 billion. Rothera, a CFTC-licensed exchange affiliated with Robinhood, has processed more than 3.5 billion contracts since launching in late May. About 93% of those were FIFA World Cup-related prediction contracts. Bernstein said Rothera became the fourth-largest prediction platform by trading volume within a month of its launch.

Bernstein said the second quarter of 2026 could be the first quarter in which prediction-market revenue exceeds crypto trading revenue. It estimated prediction-market revenue for the quarter at about $150 million, up about 44% from the first quarter. Over the same period, crypto trading volume is expected to fall about 38% from the prior quarter.

Bernstein lowered its outlook for Robinhood’s crypto business. The firm said crypto trading volume in the first half of this year missed expectations and cut its 2026 estimate for crypto trading revenue by 49%. It also reduced its 2026 total revenue forecast by 10% to $5.3 billion and its adjusted EBITDA estimate by 19% to $2.8 billion. Still, Bernstein said the weakness in crypto is cyclical rather than structural and that Robinhood has further upside if Bitcoin rebounds.

Bernstein said Robinhood’s key competitive strength is its distribution reach, supported by 27 million active accounts and 14 million monthly active users. It expects prediction markets, perpetual futures and Robinhood Chain to account for about 3% of total revenue in 2025, rising to 18% in 2027 and 23% in 2028. Robinhood Chain, an Arbitrum-based layer-2 network launched on July 1, recently surpassed $400 million in total value locked.