Stablecoins Post 35th Straight Day of Net Exchange Outflows, Signaling Weak Bitcoin Demand

Bitcoin is holding near $65,000, but exchange flow data suggests buying demand remains weak.

On-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr. wrote in a July 21 newsletter that stablecoin net flows have stayed negative for 35 straight days, while Bitcoin exchange flows remain neutral around the $65,000 level.

Bitcoin has held the $65,000 area, but the two flow indicators point to weak buying power in the market. With stablecoins continuing to leave exchanges, the market lacks the fuel needed for further gains.

Adler said Bitcoin’s 30-day net flow indicator is moving around the baseline and still shows a slight bias toward exchange inflows. Exchange inflows are typically interpreted as potential selling pressure, while outflows are seen as accumulation.

The strong exchange outflows seen during price bottoms and accumulation phases in 2023 and 2024 are not visible on the right side of the current chart. That means large-scale accumulation is not taking place, Adler wrote.

Stablecoin flows offered a more negative signal. According to Adler, the 30-day moving average of stablecoin net flows has remained in negative territory for an extended period and recently fell below a net outflow of $100 million.

The dry powder needed for exchange-based buying continues to leave the market. Without stablecoin inflows, liquidity is not being supplied to support Bitcoin demand, he wrote.

Bitcoin flows alone could be read as neutral, but when combined with stablecoin outflows, the conclusion tilts toward weak demand. Both indicators point to the same conclusion: demand is weak. Bitcoin has yet to enter an accumulation phase, while stablecoins continue to leave exchanges.

As a sign of improvement, Adler said investors should watch whether stablecoin net flows turn positive again and return to exchanges. If net outflows deeper than $100 million persist, pressure on Bitcoin prices could increase.