Polymarket Odds of CLARITY Act Becoming Law by 2026 Rise to 43% From 32%

The odds of the CLARITY Act becoming law by the end of 2026 rose to 43% on prediction market Polymarket.

CoinDesk reported on July 21 that the probability had climbed to about 43%, up 11 percentage points from 32% on July 17. That July 17 reading was the lowest since the market opened in January.

The increase followed reports that the White House had agreed to an ethics provision, the main sticking point in negotiations over the bill. The provision had been regarded as the last major obstacle after months of talks.

The bill's text has not been released. Citing people familiar with the matter, CoinDesk reported that Democrats had not yet reviewed the legislative language, while the White House and the offices of the senators involved had not issued separate official statements.

The CLARITY Act would create a comprehensive federal regulatory framework for digital assets and split oversight authority between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

The disputed ethics provision concerns how far to restrict politicians and public officials from profiting from cryptocurrencies while in office. Conflict-of-interest concerns tied to President Donald Trump's meme coin and World Liberty Financial, which members of the Trump family have been involved in, have been cited as a key backdrop to the debate.

Crypto markets extended gains after the reports. Bitcoin traded near $66,300, up about 3% over the past 24 hours, while Ether and XRP each gained about 4%.

Still, some market participants attributed the rebound more to a rally in Asian AI and semiconductor stocks than to the legislative developments. CoinDesk reported that gains in memory-chip shares such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix revived appetite for risk assets, while expectations for progress on the CLARITY Act provided an additional boost to sentiment.